{"id":121702,"date":"2026-02-06T18:02:49","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T23:02:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=121702"},"modified":"2026-02-06T18:02:49","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T23:02:49","slug":"patriots-man-coverage-seahawks-super-bowl-60","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/patriots-man-coverage-seahawks-super-bowl-60\/","title":{"rendered":"Super Bowl 60 Preview: Will Patriots Heavily Use Man Coverage?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for <strong>50% off using promo code <span style=\"color: #339966;\">SB60<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/superbowl-package\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\"><em>Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Patriots Man Coverage Tendencies<\/h2>\n<p>In the postseason, the Patriots have played:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">19% man coverage on first downs<br \/>\n30% man coverage on second downs<br \/>\n45% man coverage on third\/fourth downs<\/p>\n<p>This virtually mirrors what they did in the regular season:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#10 in rate of man on first down<br \/>\n#7 in rate of man on second down<br \/>\n#10 in rate of man on third\/fourth downs<\/p>\n<p>Overall, the Patriots rank #9 in rate of man coverage (28%) on all snaps this year.<\/p>\n<p>Two things to realize:<\/p>\n<p>First, we\u2019re talking less than 30% of all passes, so while we can technically say \u201ctop 10,\u201d the vast majority of passes they\u2019re still playing zone.<\/p>\n<p>Second, teams tend to adjust to their opponent.<\/p>\n<p>The Patriots averaged 28% man on all snaps and 29% man on all dropbacks, but they had massive swings.<\/p>\n<p>57% against the Bills in Week 15 and 47% against the Bills in Week 5, but as little as 24% against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round and as low as 10-14% in multiple games against teams like the Dolphins, Titans, and Browns.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s discuss each of these scenarios.<\/p>\n<div class=\"video-shortcode\"><iframe title=\"Why Defenses Stopped Playing Man Coverage vs the Seahawks\" width=\"1100\" height=\"619\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ELnJvOU6zHw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/superbowl-package\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\">Super Bowl Package<\/a> for <strong>50%\u00a0off using promo code <span style=\"color: #339966;\">SB60<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1.25+ Unit Plays: <strong>10-0<\/strong> (100%) YTD<\/li>\n<li>Best Bet for the Super Bowl: <strong>16-3<\/strong> (84%) YTD<\/li>\n<li>All Elevated Props: <strong>37-12<\/strong> (76%) YTD<\/li>\n<li>All Sides & Totals: <strong>27-11<\/strong> (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A $100 bettor has won <strong>$13,069<\/strong> following Warren's betting recommendations this season. Join for $50 off <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/superbowl-package\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\">HERE<\/a>.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2>Patriots' Opponent-Specific Coverage Adjustments<\/h2>\n<p>While the Patriots average man coverage on 29% of pass dropbacks, they change massively from game to game.<\/p>\n<h3>High Man Coverage Games<\/h3>\n<p>Three games featured over 40% man coverage on pass dropbacks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">57% vs. the Bills Week 15<br \/>\n48% vs. the Jets Week 11<br \/>\n47% vs. the Bills Week 5<\/p>\n<p>A commonality in these three games is an extremely mobile QB: <strong>Josh<\/strong> <strong>Allen<\/strong> twice and <strong>Justin<\/strong> <strong>Fields<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3>Low Man Coverage Games<\/h3>\n<p>Four games featured less than 20% man coverage on pass dropbacks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">11% vs. the Dolphins Week 2<br \/>\n13% vs. the Titans Week 7<br \/>\n14% vs. the Browns Week 8<br \/>\n17% vs. the Dolphins Week 18<\/p>\n<p>One commonality in these games was QBs with low scramble rates: <strong>Tua<\/strong> <strong>Tagovailoa<\/strong>, <strong>Dillon<\/strong> <strong>Gabriel<\/strong>, <strong>Cam Ward<\/strong>, and <strong>Quinn<\/strong> <strong>Ewers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The Patriots won three of four by comfortable margins, allowing them to play more zone late in the game.<\/p>\n<p>But even if you look at only the first half of the game, three of the five lowest rates of man coverage in any game this year came in those matchups.<\/p>\n<h3>Why the Patriots Adjust Coverage Rates by Opponent<\/h3>\n<p>Another game that started out very similarly in the first half was the Week 9 game against the Falcons and <strong>Michael<\/strong> <strong>Penix<\/strong> <strong>Jr<\/strong>, who likewise has a very low scramble rate.<\/p>\n<p>These QBs\u2019 scramble rates ranked:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#39 \u2013 Tua Tagovailoa<br \/>\n#36 \u2013 Quinn Ewers<br \/>\n#34 \u2013 Cam Ward<br \/>\n#29 \u2013 Michael Penix Jr<br \/>\n#26 \u2013 Dillon Gabriel<\/p>\n<p>The Patriots played far more zone this year against this quarterback archetype than against mobile QBs.<\/p>\n<p>Where does <strong>Sam<\/strong> <strong>Darnold<\/strong> slot in?<\/p>\n<p>Darnold\u2019s 2.7% scramble rate ranks #38 in the NFL, just one spot above Tua\u2019s 2.6%.<\/p>\n<p>While obviously the Patriots could come up with any scheme, and <strong>Mike Vrabel<\/strong> has two weeks to prepare for this game, I am going to cut against the grain here.<\/p>\n<p>Virtually everyone is discussing <strong>Christian<\/strong> <strong>Gonzalez<\/strong> vs. <strong>Jaxon<\/strong> <strong>Smith<\/strong>&#8211;<strong>Njigba<\/strong> and how Gonzalez can do manned up against JSN.<\/p>\n<p>And they\u2019re discussing the high rates of man coverage the Patriots play.<\/p>\n<p>But I\u2019m going to handicap this game based on my personal expectation that the Patriots play less man coverage than their #9 ranking on the season indicates.<\/p>\n<p><em>This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for <strong>50% off using promo code <span style=\"color: #339966;\">SB60<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/superbowl-package\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\"><em>Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp&#8217;s Super Bowl 60  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":121592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Super Bowl 60: Will Patriots Heavily Use Man Coverage?","_seopress_titles_desc":"How the Patriots' man coverage tactics vary opponent heading into Super Bowl 60. What will they do against Darnold? Complete defensive scheme analysis and trends.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-121702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-300x169.jpg","large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-1024x576.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-768x432.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-694x694.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/JSN-SB60-Preview-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121702"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121702\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":121705,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121702\/revisions\/121705"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/121592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}