{"id":122119,"date":"2026-02-25T07:00:42","date_gmt":"2026-02-25T12:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=122119"},"modified":"2026-03-03T16:55:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T21:55:19","slug":"chiefs-2026-outlook-regression-betting-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/chiefs-2026-outlook-regression-betting-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Chiefs 2026 Outlook: Why One Unlucky Stat Points to a Bounce Back"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Chiefs Were Historically Unlucky in 2025<\/h2>\n

What if I told you the Chiefs had one of the unluckiest seasons in modern NFL history?<\/p>\n

Their opponents made 97% of field goals against them last year.<\/p>\n

31 of 32 field goals!<\/p>\n

The Chiefs'opponent make rate was the #2 highest against any team in well over a decade, with a minimum of at least 30 attempts.<\/p>\n

Opposing kickers\u2019 ability to bang through field goals played a large role in sending the Chiefs into a tailspin last season.<\/p>\n

They won just one of seven games that were decided by 3 or fewer points last year.<\/p>\n

Seven games decided by a field goal.<\/p>\n

The Chiefs lost six of them.<\/p>\n

And these weren\u2019t just one kick at the end to win it, either.<\/p>\n

Six Chiefs Losses Decided by Field Goals<\/h3>\n

The Broncos went 5 for 5 in field goals, including making a 54-yard field goal to tie the game with 4 minutes to go and then kicking the walkoff game winner to win by 3.<\/p>\n

The Raiders went 4 for 4 in field goals, including a 60-yard game-winner with less than 10 seconds left to win by 2.<\/p>\n

The Chargers, trailing the entire game, kicked a field goal to tie the game at 13 and then the game-winning field goal with less than a minute left from 49 yards to win by 3.<\/p>\n

They went 3 for 3 on the night.<\/p>\n

Likewise, the Cowboys went 3 for 3 against the Chiefs and won by 3 points.<\/p>\n

The Eagles won by 3 with their kicker going 2 for 2 on field goals over 50 yards, making from 58 and 51 yards.<\/p>\n

The Jaguars won by 3 with their kicker going 1 for 1, banging home another field goal longer than 50 yards.<\/p>\n

All told, in these 6 losses decided by 3 points or less, Chiefs opponents went 20 for 20, including 9 for 9 on attempts of 49 yards or more and 3 for 3 on attempts of 55 yards or more.<\/p>\n

Chiefs 2026 Outlook<\/h2>\n

There are a lot of things the Chiefs have room to improve upon in 2026.<\/p>\n

They had 119 penalties, seventh most in the NFL.<\/p>\n

They were one of four teams to not score a single return TD on special teams or defense.<\/p>\n

They recovered only four fumbles, second-fewest in the NFL.<\/p>\n

They need to improve in these areas, but they should fare better in 2026 simply by pure regression.<\/p>\n

One thing that surely will go the Chiefs' way next season is the rate at which opponents make field goals against them.<\/p>\n

That alone should turn many of those one-score losses into wins.<\/p>\n

Explore Kansas City Chiefs 2026 Odds:<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Chiefs are not favored to win the AFC West for the first time since 2018.<\/p>\n