{"id":122133,"date":"2026-02-25T08:00:02","date_gmt":"2026-02-25T13:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=122133"},"modified":"2026-03-05T11:55:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T16:55:10","slug":"kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Kyler Murray Trade Value: Why These Stats Are a Red Flag"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem<\/h2>\n<p>If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL\u2019s worst starting quarterbacks.<\/p>\n<p>Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.<\/p>\n<p>On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s examine Murray\u2019s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.<\/p>\n<p>On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)<br \/>\n#36 of 36 in EPA\/attempt (-0.18)<br \/>\n#36 of 36 in Y\/A (7.5)<\/p>\n<p>How about 20+ yards downfield?<\/p>\n<p>Murray ranks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)<br \/>\n#45 of 46 in EPA\/attempt (-0.16)<br \/>\n#42 of 46 in Y\/A (8.7)<\/p>\n<p>How about 15+ yards downfield?<\/p>\n<p>Murray ranks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)<br \/>\n#51 of 51 in EPA\/attempt (+0.05)<br \/>\n#47 of 51 in Y\/A (9.3)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Kyler-Murray-Downfield-Stats-Infographic.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-122134 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Kyler-Murray-Downfield-Stats-Infographic.jpg\" alt=\"Kyler Murray's downfield stats infographic\" width=\"975\" height=\"613\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<div class=\"video-shortcode\"><iframe title=\"Kyler Murray Trade Talk Is Crazy When You See These Stats\" width=\"1100\" height=\"619\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nAPJ_niCjyg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn\u2019t really considered taking \u201ca shot downfield,\u201d but to just put a bow on the analysis, let\u2019s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.<\/p>\n<p>I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)<br \/>\n#43 of 43 in EPA\/attempt (+0.08)<br \/>\n#41 of 43 in Y\/A (8.8)<\/p>\n<p>These aren\u2019t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.<\/p>\n<p>There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.<\/p>\n<p>Murray doesn\u2019t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.<\/p>\n<p>As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it\u2019s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.<\/p>\n<h3>Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History<\/h3>\n<p>He\u2019s not getting better.<\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.<\/p>\n<p>Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.<\/p>\n<p>His injury record is extensive:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain<br \/>\n2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury<br \/>\n2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus<br \/>\n2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games<\/p>\n<h3>The Indoor\/Outdoor Factor: Murray's Hidden Weakness<\/h3>\n<p>And then there\u2019s the conflating factor in his inefficiency throwing downfield:<\/p>\n<p>Murray has played only 12 of 41 games (29%) outdoors since 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Due to quirks about when in the season he has been injured, 23 of the 41 games he has played have been at home.<\/p>\n<p>He has played only 18 road games to 23 home games, and 6 of the 18 road games have been in domes.<\/p>\n<p>Ranking QBs since 2022 just in outdoor games, let\u2019s again run through the exercise on passing downfield.<\/p>\n<p>On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#47 of 47 in completion rate (13%)<br \/>\n#46 of 47 in EPA\/attempt (-0.49)<br \/>\n#47 of 47 in Y\/A (4.1)<\/p>\n<p>On 20+ yard passes, Murray ranks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#38 of 43 in completion rate (30%)<br \/>\n#43 of 43 in EPA\/attempt (-0.35)<br \/>\n#42 of 43 in Y\/A (7.7)<\/p>\n<p>On 15+ yard passes, Murray ranks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#35 of 40 in completion rate (38%)<br \/>\n#36 of 40 in EPA\/attempt (+0.08)<br \/>\n#40 of 40 in Y\/A (8.9)<\/p>\n<p>Not only are these numbers throwing downfield bad, but Murray also hasn\u2019t even played in many outdoor games with harsh climates.<\/p>\n<p>Since 2022, out of 41 total games played, Murray has played <em>JUST<\/em> <em>ONE<\/em> <em>GAME<\/em> with a kickoff temperature less than 45 degrees (loss in Carolina on 12\/22\/24).<\/p>\n<p>Since 2022, out of 41 total games played, Murray has played <em>JUST ONE GAME<\/em> with winds of 15 mph or more (loss in Buffalo on 9\/8\/24).<\/p>\n<p>Since 2022, out of 41 total games played, Murray has played <em>JUST ONE GAME<\/em> with any form of precipitation at all (loss in Green Bay on 10\/13\/24).<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kyler Murray&#8217;s Deep Ball Problem If quarterbacks need to be  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113017,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Kyler Murray Trade Value: Why These Stats Are a Red Flag","_seopress_titles_desc":"Kyler Murray ranks dead last among 47 QBs in 25+ yard passing since 2022. Deep-dive stats reveal why teams should avoid trading for the Cardinals quarterback.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-122133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Kyler-Murray-Week-5-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=122133"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122133\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":122160,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122133\/revisions\/122160"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113017"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=122133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=122133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=122133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}