*Age on 9\/1\/26<\/em><\/p>\nThe 2025 Heisman Trophy winner is where this draft will kick off.<\/p>\n
Mendoza transferred to Indiana after two seasons at Cal, where he and the team reeled off a 16-0 season and a National Championship.<\/p>\n
After throwing 30 passing touchdowns over his two seasons at Cal, Mendoza threw 41 passing touchdowns last season.<\/p>\n
The former 3-star recruit improved his completion percentage and yards per pass attempt average in all three seasons in college.<\/p>\n
His final season completion percentage (72%) ranks 94th percentile, while his touchdown to interception rate (41 to 6) ranks 92nd percentile, and his 9.3 yards per pass attempt sits 84th percentile among all prospects since 2000.<\/p>\n
Mendoza\u2019s calling cards are that he has prototypical size (6-foot-5 and 236 pounds) and plays on schedule with accuracy.<\/p>\n
A class-high 79% of his throws were on target in 2025.<\/p>\n
The seasoning for Mendoza is that he played his best in high-leverage situations.<\/p>\n
On 139 career dropbacks in the red zone, Mendoza threw only 1 interception while taking 7 sacks.<\/p>\n
This past season at Indiana, Mendoza took 69 dropbacks in the red zone, throwing 26 passing touchdowns with 0 interceptions and taking 2 sacks.<\/p>\n
On third and fourth downs, Mendoza had a class-high 75.3% on-target throw rate and a class-high 14.7% touchdown rate.<\/p>\n
Mendoza was ripping the ball downfield in those spots, too, averaging 10.9 yards per throw downfield on third and fourth downs, which was second in this class.<\/p>\n
The nits to pick with Mendoza entering the NFL are how he will perform in a more challenging environment and how he will adapt his game to the current NFL.<\/p>\n
There will be some who ask about how his offensive environment at the college level was perfectly in tune with his strengths.<\/p>\n
Mendoza had the lowest drop rate in this class (2.2%).<\/p>\n
Mendoza benefited from a heavy RPO offense predicated on a high rate of throws outside the numbers and into traffic.<\/p>\n
23.4% of his dropbacks and 25.4% of his pass attempts last season were on RPO calls, by far the highest rates of this class.<\/p>\n
The next-closest quarterback in both departments was Mark Gronowski<\/strong> of Iowa, who had a 16.3% RPO dropback rate and 16.4% of his pass attempts on those play calls.<\/p>\nMendoza only threw 55.2% of his passes over the middle of the field (12th in this class).<\/p>\n
If you look at the current state of the NFL, we have seen a spike in more condensed formations and a continued spike in playing under center, turning your back to the defense, and using traditional play action.<\/p>\n
That has increased relevancy, knowing that we have close to 100% certainty that Mendoza will be selected first overall by the Raiders, who just hired Klint<\/strong> Kubiak<\/strong> as their head coach.<\/p>\nIn the past two seasons with the Seahawks and Saints, Kubiak\u2019s passers have had under-center rates of 54.8% (2nd in the league) and 42.5% (5th).<\/p>\n
Over his three collegiate seasons, Mendoza has had only six dropbacks under center.<\/p>\n
While that does take a step of faith in transitioning to the NFL, Kubiak has elevated both Derek<\/strong> Carr<\/strong> and Sam Darnold<\/strong>, prospects who offer a manageable bar of expectations.<\/p>\nDespite playing in a heavy RPO scheme, Mendoza did make big-time throws.<\/p>\n
Only 13.9% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage (3rd-lowest rate in the class).<\/p>\n
Only 14.4% of his throws were 20 or more yards downfield (10th), but he had the highest on-target throw rate (54.5%) on those passes.<\/p>\n
Even if you are factoring in that his infrastructure of systems and surrounding talent accentuated those characteristics, Mendoza did everything he was asked to a high degree.<\/p>\n
Mendoza was also battle-tested due to his conference and postseason run.<\/p>\n
On 303 dropbacks against Power Conference opponents, Mendoza led this class in completion rate (71.9%), yards per pass attempt (9.3), and touchdown rate (10.6%).<\/p>\n
He had five games against top 10 defenses last season (Oregon twice, Iowa, Ohio State, and Miami).<\/p>\n
Ohio State and Miami did make Mendoza work in both games, but overall, he completed 65.3% of his passes for 8.3 Y\/A with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.<\/p>\n
That quality schedule did give us a sample of Mendoza playing under pressure, which showcased some of the limitations we could see at the next level when the pass rush ramps up.<\/p>\n
Under pressure against Ohio State and Miami, Mendoza was 9 of 16 (56.3%) for 93 yards (5.8 Y\/A) with 0 touchdowns.<\/p>\n
Kept clean in those games, he was 22 of 34 (64.7%) for 316 yards (9.3 Y\/A).<\/p>\n
At the end of the day, we are fully aware that Mendoza can have a high floor.<\/p>\n
The questions (particularly for fantasy) are about his ceiling.<\/p>\n
Mendoza has the profile as a weekly QB2 for fantasy who can moonlight as a QB1 during spike weeks and finish as a back-end QB1 in cumulative scoring.<\/p>\n
From a modeling perspective, the closest comparison for Mendoza that I have is Sam<\/strong> Bradford<\/strong>.<\/p>\nThe one thing Mendoza does have in his back pocket compared to the QB2 pocket passer group for fantasy is that he is not a complete zero in the running game.<\/p>\n
Mendoza is not a run-first passer, but he is the 53rd percentile in career rushing output.<\/p>\n
He had a 7.7% scramble rate last season, which was seventh in this class.<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t believe Mendoza has the full creativity of a Brock<\/strong> Purdy<\/strong> when things are out of structure, but the top-down fantasy archetype for him is in the same ballpark as Purdy.<\/p>\nExplore all of our 2026 NFL Draft content:<\/strong><\/p>\n