{"id":19027,"date":"2020-04-13T15:07:49","date_gmt":"2020-04-13T19:07:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=19027"},"modified":"2020-04-13T15:07:49","modified_gmt":"2020-04-13T19:07:49","slug":"2020-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-production-jerry-jeudy-henry-ruggs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/2020-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-production-jerry-jeudy-henry-ruggs\/","title":{"rendered":"2020 NFL Draft: Contextualizing Wide Receiver Production"},"content":{"rendered":"

The NFL\u2019s latest offensive revolution has come from the adaptation of many successful college concepts but even the influx of college schemes hasn\u2019t made projecting players from college to the NFL any easier. In some cases, the wide-open game of college football can make it more difficult to add context around the passing game. A 1,000-yard receiving season means a much different thing at Washington State than it does at a school where the ball is thrown less often, which is just about all of them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finding context for college receiving production isn\u2019t anything new. We know metrics like target share and breakout age matter. So does when a receiver prospect declares for the draft<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

But when looking at college production, not all things we assume at the NFL level hold true. In an NFL offense, where talent is more closely compacted than in college, earning a target is considered a skill. Good players get open and open players get the ball, therefore targets can be considered a production stat. That\u2019s not necessarily the case for college receivers. Bad players get targeted because of few other options on an offense and in many cases, bad quarterbacks are throwing those targets. These are all things that need to be considered when looking into a college receiver\u2019s performance.<\/span><\/p>\n

One way we can try to do that is by contextualizing the receiver\u2019s performance by his offensive surroundings to find out exactly what he added to his offense. We can do this by taking the receiver\u2019s yards per target in his final college season and subtract the quarterback\u2019s yards per attempt when the QB throws to anyone else. This helps account for a number of variables in the offense, including offensive quality, target share, and efficiency. It\u2019s a metric I\u2019ve used since 2014 and one I\u2019ve called Target Yards Added, which is how we\u2019ll refer to it going forward.<\/span><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how the 2020 wide receiver draft class comes out by this measure:<\/span><\/p>\n

2020 NFL Draft Target Yards Added<\/strong><\/p>\n