{"id":19274,"date":"2020-04-20T11:29:11","date_gmt":"2020-04-20T15:29:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=19274"},"modified":"2021-06-12T09:16:56","modified_gmt":"2021-06-12T13:16:56","slug":"qb-accuracy-2020-nfl-draft-burrow-tua-herbert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/qb-accuracy-2020-nfl-draft-burrow-tua-herbert\/","title":{"rendered":"What Does Accuracy Tell Us About The 2020 Quarterback Draft Class?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ask Mike Leach any question and no telling what the answer is going to be. But ask Leach about what makes a good quarterback and he\u2019ll consistently go on about the importance of accuracy.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Mike Leach: Most important characteristics of QBs<br \/>\n&#8220;You can't develop people into being accurate after 17-18. In the 4th-6th grade he\u2019s the guy that can take the snowball & hit the stop sign&#8221;<br \/>\n1. Accuracy<br \/>\n2. Good Decisions<br \/>\n3. Quick Feet<br \/>\n4. Fast<br \/>\n5. Strong Arm<br \/>\n+Elevate play of others <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Yh6mPzC14r\">pic.twitter.com\/Yh6mPzC14r<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SharpFootball\/status\/1102296816954036226?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 3, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Accuracy isn\u2019t the only thing that matters for a quarterback, but it is the hardest thing to change. Inaccurate quarterbacks at one level don\u2019t magically improve at the next. We\u2019ve seen this consistently as prospects have gone from college to the NFL.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Josh Allen<\/strong>\u2019s big arm is only as useful as how often he can put the ball on his intended receiver and because of that, he was statistically one of the worst deep passers in the league last season. Allen is just the most recent example of a big-armed prospect whose accuracy limited how impactful that arm could be in the NFL.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.numberfire.com\/nfl\/news\/31525\/nfl-draft-how-to-find-successful-quarterbacks-after-the-first-round\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">numberFire\u2019s Jim Sannes showed recently<\/a>, the most common thread between mid-to-late round hits at quarterback come from quarterbacks who had accuracy but were knocked for a lack of arm strength.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An accurate quarterback still needs other tools but it might be the best tool to build off when evaluating performance, so let\u2019s evaluate that. We can start by taking a look at how this year\u2019s quarterback class performed in accuracy to each level of the field. The below chart shows on-target and completion percentages on short (1-10 air yards), intermediate (11-19), and deep (20+) throws, as well as how often each quarterback threw to those depths and the rate of total throws that passed the line of scrimmage (LoS).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/2020-Draft-QB-Sports-Info-Solutions.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19277\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/2020-Draft-QB-Sports-Info-Solutions.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2140\" height=\"846\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Clearly, there\u2019s a lot to take in here, so let\u2019s go through some of the takeaways by quarterback.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Joe Burrow Is Quite Good<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There\u2019s only so much left to say about <\/span><b>Joe Burrow<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> at this point. He was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/joe-burrow-nfl-draft-first-down-patrick-mahomes\/\">trusted to throw on first down more than any college quarterback in recent history<\/a> (and given how there\u2019s more passing now, probably ever) and for good reason.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Burrow was first in on-target percentage at each level of the field and was only barely beaten out in completion to the intermediate area. With LSU, Burrow worked in a quick-strike offense, but there were few difficulties when the play needed longer to develop. Burrow had over half of his attempts come between 1 and 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which is a high rate but those short throws took the place of negative air yard throws many other quarterbacks made instead.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The ability to put the ball in a good spot on a deep pass is also a positive and underrated trait for Burrow. His 74.4% on-target rate on 20-plus air yard throws is second among college quarterbacks with at least 50 such attempts in a season since 2017, per SIS charting. Only 2017 <\/span><b>Baker Mayfield<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (75.0%) was higher and 2018 <\/span><b>Kyler Murray <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(70.1%) was third.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tua, also pretty good<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For some reason, there\u2019s been a question recently about who will be the second quarterback drafted in this class. Some of that comes from <strong>Tua Tagovailoa<\/strong>\u2019s health but there have also been some reports that some evaluators around the league prefer other options in this class to Tagovailoa. Especially by this measure, it\u2019s hard to see why that would be the case.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If there\u2019s a question about Tua\u2019s play when healthy, it could come from the talent he had around him. Tagovailoa played this past season with two wide receivers who are going to be drafted in the first round and two others who will probably be first-round selections next year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That raises a potential question about how much that accuracy will translate to the NFL when the talent level is closer and the passing windows are smaller. But still, there hasn\u2019t been a lack of big throws throughout Tagolaivoa\u2019s career and the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/nfl-tight-windows-mahomes-mcvay\/\">smartest offenses in the NFL are embracing space<\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and not forcing their quarterbacks into tight window throws.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While Alabama relied heavily on play-action and RPO\u2019s (44.4% of Tagovailia\u2019s attempts came on such throws in 2019), Tua was a good enough processor to wait for the open receiver and not force a ball when an opening wasn\u2019t there \u2014 the quarterback had just as big a hand at creating those wide-open throws. His quick processing on those RPOs also helped out his teammates and the accuracy to put the ball in the right spot helped set up some big plays in tight windows too.<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%; height: 0px; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.444%;\"><iframe style=\"width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; overflow: hidden;\" src=\"https:\/\/streamable.com\/e\/i5nx36\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Justin Herbert Doesn\u2019t Really Stand Out<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Justin Herbert<\/strong>\u2019s numbers leave a lot to be desired for a prospect viewed as the QB3 in this class by most. In 2019, Herbert was slightly below average on short throws and slightly above average on intermediate throws. He also was one of the worst deep passers in the league, with a sub-50% on-target rate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon\u2019s scheme didn\u2019t do many favors for Herbert when plays were designed beyond the line of scrimmage. Only 34% of Herbert\u2019s throws were from 1-10 yards beyond the line, which was the lowest rate in the class (although he did have one of the highest rates of throws behind the line of scrimmage). Herbert had the second-highest rate of throws to the intermediate range, which helped because that\u2019s where he was relatively more accurate, but an NFL team could give Herbert some easier throws in that 1-10 range to not make him force deep throws at a high rate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The biggest red flag here comes on the deep ball. Herbert is the prototypical tall quarterback with a big arm, but arm strength only does so much if the deep passes aren\u2019t catchable (see: Allen, Josh). Herbert didn\u2019t get the benefit of throwing deep to wide-open receivers as often as Burrow or Tagovailoa, but he also wasn\u2019t helping his receivers out much either.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Herbert can also run hot and cold in a given game, like this two-play sequence from Oregon\u2019s season opener against Auburn. On the first throw, Herbert stood in a clean pocket, wound back, and airmailed a deep pass to his wide receiver. Then on the next play, he had a designed rollout to his right and threw a strike down the sideline on the run.<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%; height: 0px; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.444%;\"><iframe style=\"width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; overflow: hidden;\" src=\"https:\/\/streamable.com\/e\/vct3a4\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jordan Love 2018 vs 2019<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There might not be a more puzzling evaluation than Utah State\u2019s <strong>Jordan Love<\/strong>. On one play, he\u2019ll throw a deep strike on the run against LSU\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%; height: 0px; position: relative; padding-bottom: 52.624%;\"><iframe style=\"width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; overflow: hidden;\" src=\"https:\/\/streamable.com\/e\/8sfgkp\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Then on the next, he won\u2019t see a cornerback on an out route and the defender can easily jump the receiver\u2019s route for an interception. While throws like the former stand out, the latter plays are more frequent. But there\u2019s a chance even after reading those last two sentences, you\u2019re still thinking about that LSU throw.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Because of Love\u2019s big arm and highlight plays, he\u2019s been compared by some, irresponsibly, to <\/span><b>Patrick Mahomes<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. The difference between Mahomes and Love as college prospects is that Mahomes was completing wild throws most evaluators didn\u2019t believe he could pull off in the NFL (that was proven to be false). Love, on the other hand, spent 2019 attempting wild throws he wasn\u2019t able to pull off in college.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During Mahomes\u2019s final season at Texas Tech, he had an interception rate of just 1.7%. Love threw an interception on 3.7% of his throws from a clean pocket last season, per SIS. If you eliminate Love\u2019s three three-interception games from his 2019 season, he still finished with a higher interception rate than Mahomes did in his final college season.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Love\u2019s problems weren\u2019t just on the wild shots. He significantly regressed in the quick game, both in accuracy and decision making. Some point to Love\u2019s 2018 as a better reflection as what he could be a prospect, but that only really helps in the short area. He was on-target for 86.5% of those throws in 2018 (which would place him favorably with <\/span><b>Anthony Gordon<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in this class for 2019) but that fell off a cliff to 76.2% in 2019. Love\u2019s on-target percentage actually went up compared to 2018 on intermediate and deep throws but he was still well below average in those areas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Jordan Love, 2018 vs 2019<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='19279' id='jtrt_table_settings_19279' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Year\",\"1-10 OT%\",\"11-19 OT%\",\"20+ OT%\",\"1-10 Comp%\",\"11-19 Comp%\",\"20+ Comp%\"],[\"2018\",\"86.5%\",\"63.5%\",\"46.3%\",\"70.3%\",\"48.4%\",\"34.3%\"],[\"2019\",\"76.2%\",\"70.7%\",\"53.7%\",\"65.3%\",\"56.1%\",\"34.1%\"]],[{\"row\":0,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":0,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":0,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":0,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":0,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":0,\"col\":5,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":5,\"prop\":5},{\"row\":0,\"col\":6,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":6,\"prop\":6},{\"row\":1,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":1,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":1,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":1,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":1,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":1,\"col\":5,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":5,\"prop\":5},{\"row\":1,\"col\":6,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":6,\"prop\":6},{\"row\":2,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":2,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":2,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":2,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":2,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":2,\"col\":5,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":5,\"prop\":5},{\"row\":2,\"col\":6,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":6,\"prop\":6}],[],[]]<\/textarea><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='19279' id='jtrt_table_bps_19279' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_19279' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='19279' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Year<\/th><th>1-10 OT%<\/th><th>11-19 OT%<\/th><th>20+ OT%<\/th><th>1-10 Comp%<\/th><th>11-19 Comp%<\/th><th>20+ Comp%<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>2018<\/td><td>86.5%<\/td><td>63.5%<\/td><td>46.3%<\/td><td>70.3%<\/td><td>48.4%<\/td><td>34.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2019<\/td><td>76.2%<\/td><td>70.7%<\/td><td>53.7%<\/td><td>65.3%<\/td><td>56.1%<\/td><td>34.1%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jalen Hurts Should Be Taken Seriously<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Near the top of every category above is Oklahoma\u2019s <strong>Jalen Hurts<\/strong>. Hurts is the latest in the Lincoln Riley factory of quarterbacks, but he\u2019s not viewed as a prospect at the caliber of Mayfield or Murray. While he rightly isn\u2019t, he still has a number of traits that should interest NFL teams.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Riley system is now a double-edged sword for quarterback prospects. They get to look great and throw up huge numbers in college but they\u2019ll be viewed as beneficiaries of the system. That\u2019s part of the discussion about Hurts\u2019s potential pro prospects.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hurts can be a slow processor (shown by his average on-target rate in the short game) and has been knocked as a see-it-throw-it quarterback, which means he\u2019s waiting to see the receiver open instead on anticipating and throwing. That works because Oklahoma receivers are typically getting open themselves. In the NFL, those open windows close faster and a pass that got off a tick slow for a big play in college can easily turn into an interception in the NFL.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But Hurts has flashes of anticipation across his film and when he does throw it, he\u2019s been fairly on-point. Hurts is still a better processor than, say, Love, who can make quicker decisions that have more often turned out to be the wrong one. Hurts also has the added benefit of mobility which can get himself into and out of trouble, but is a trait that has served as a safety net for young quarterbacks over the past few seasons in the NFL. His ability to throw accurately on the run only helps that mobility become a positive at the next level.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tyler Huntley, Day 3 Target<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Every year there\u2019s a Day 3 quarterback to fall in love with. It\u2019s a different player for different groups and there\u2019s no consensus on that player this year. Some love <strong>Cole McDonald<\/strong>, the wild Hawaii quarterback who shows plus accuracy until he\u2019s asked to throw the deep ball. Some love Washington State\u2019s Anthony Gordon, who rocked the short game for Mike Leach\u2019s offense but was spotty on other throws.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One prospect who stands out from the numbers above but has not been discussed often enough (he wasn\u2019t even invited to the combine) is Utah\u2019s <strong>Tyler Huntley<\/strong>. Huntley had a standout senior season at Utah, which came after he broke his collarbone in November of 2018.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Huntley\u2019s on-target rates on are par with Tagovailoa\u2019s to all levels of the field and he wasn\u2019t working with the same quality of receivers, though he also saw worse defenses in the PAC-12 (though, they were the same defenses faced by Justin Herbert).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s easy to see why Huntley could be overlooked, he\u2019s a smaller quarterback from a run-heavy offense, who has around a baseline-level arm. But like we mentioned at the top in the numberFire article from Jim Sannes, prospects believed to have a weak arm but are otherwise accurate are the types of late-round picks who hit more frequently than more toolsy players.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While Huntley might not have a huge arm, he was one of the most accurate deep passers in college football last season. And while performance against pressure is highly variant from year-to-year, Huntley\u2019s process in handling pressure is hard to ignore. He has some fun throws on tape too:<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%; height: 0px; position: relative; padding-bottom: 52.471%;\"><iframe style=\"width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; overflow: hidden;\" src=\"https:\/\/streamable.com\/e\/zxhprx\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He might not be the star in this class, but in an otherwise weak class after the top-two prospects, a quarterback with Huntley\u2019s profile should be the type of player smart NFL teams target on the third day of the draft.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ask Mike Leach any question and no telling what the  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