{"id":19925,"date":"2020-05-19T10:44:14","date_gmt":"2020-05-19T14:44:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=19925"},"modified":"2020-06-10T15:19:35","modified_gmt":"2020-06-10T19:19:35","slug":"dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-austin-ekeler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-austin-ekeler\/","title":{"rendered":"Dynasty Buy, Sell, Or Hold: Austin Ekeler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now that free agency, the NFL Draft, and the schedule release have all passed, we have our initial layout in place in team depth charts and strength of schedule. With that, we want to take a look at some players across the fantasy landscape that are either polarizing, over or undervalued, or just interesting topics of discussion and walk through some of the pros and cons of where those players are regarded in fantasy circles. Yesterday, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-kenyan-drake\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">we started off with <\/span><b>Kenyan Drake<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Today, we are taking a look at <\/span><b>Austin Ekeler<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Week 1 Age<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 25.3<br \/>\n<\/span><b>Contract: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Signed through 2023 (potential out year after 2021)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Ekeler-1.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19928\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Ekeler-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"887\" height=\"424\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Using the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/dynastyleaguefootball.com\/adp-over-time\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dynasty ADP tool<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> available at <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/dynastyleaguefootball.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dynasty League Football<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, Ekeler has done nothing but climb in terms of draft cost. For good reason, as he has done nothing but massively outproduce his draft value for all three seasons of his career while now having a new contract and potentially even more opportunity with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/fantasy-football-fallout-melvin-gordon-signs-with-denver-broncos\/\"><b>Melvin Gordon<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> leaving the Chargers via free agency this offseason to join the Denver Broncos<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As an undrafted free agent out of Western State in 2017, Ekeler has been the RB24 in PPR points per game since entering the league on the strength of his receiving acumen. Since entering the league, Ekeler\u2019s 158 receptions rank sixth among all running backs while his 1,676 receiving yards have only been bested by <\/span><b>Christian McCaffrey<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (2,523), <\/span><b>Alvin Kamara<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (2,068), and <\/span><b>James White<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (1,825) over that span.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A hyper-efficient target, Ekeler has averaged over 10.0 yards per catch in each of his first three NFL seasons. He is the first running back to do that on over 20 receptions per year since Kelvin Bryant over the 1986-1988 seasons.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ekeler has contributed and outproduced his cost all while sharing a backfield and largely playing as a complementary player, but his opportunities have done nothing but rise. Ekeler\u2019s touches have gone up from 74 to 145 to 224 over his three seasons in the league. Now with Gordon out of the picture, his splits with Gordon out of the lineup the past two seasons have added scintillation.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='19929' id='jtrt_table_settings_19929' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Ekeler Splits\",\"W\\\/o Gordon\",\"W\\\/Gordon\"],[\"Games\",\"7\",\"23\"],[\"Snaps\\\/Gm\",\"46.3\",\"27.5\"],[\"RuAtt\\\/Gm\",\"13.7\",\"6.2\"],[\"Tm Att%\",\"60.0%\",\"25.1%\"],[\"Tgt\\\/Gm\",\"6.4\",\"5\"],[\"Tm Tgt%\",\"18.9%\",\"14.6%\"],[\"Tm Tch%\",\"40.4%\",\"21.7%\"],[\"YPC\",\"3.6\",\"5.4\"],[\"Yd\\\/Rec\",\"9.6\",\"10.9\"],[\"PPR PPG\",\"20.8\",\"14.4\"]],[{\"row\":0,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":0,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":0,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":1,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":1,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":1,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":2,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":2,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":2,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":3,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":3,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":3,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":4,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":4,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":4,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":5,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":5,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":5,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":6,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":6,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":6,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":7,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":7,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":7,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":8,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":8,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":8,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":9,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":9,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":9,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":9,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":9,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":9,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":10,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":10,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":10,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":10,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":10,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":10,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2}],[],[]]<\/textarea><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='19929' id='jtrt_table_bps_19929' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_19929' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='19929' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Ekeler Splits<\/th><th>W\/o Gordon<\/th><th>W\/Gordon<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Games<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>23<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Snaps\/Gm<\/td><td>46.3<\/td><td>27.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>RuAtt\/Gm<\/td><td>13.7<\/td><td>6.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tm Att%<\/td><td>60.0%<\/td><td>25.1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tgt\/Gm<\/td><td>6.4<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tm Tgt%<\/td><td>18.9%<\/td><td>14.6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tm Tch%<\/td><td>40.4%<\/td><td>21.7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>YPC<\/td><td>3.6<\/td><td>5.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Yd\/Rec<\/td><td>9.6<\/td><td>10.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>PPR PPG<\/td><td>20.8<\/td><td>14.4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We only have a seven-game sample here, but you can see the spike in volume for Ekeler with Gordon out of the lineup has been immense. Even with efficiency dips, opportunity is paramount as Ekeler\u2019s snaps per game and share of the team touches nearly double up. In those seven games, he averaged 20.8 PPR points per game and has been a top-12 scorer four times with just one week outside of the top-24 scorers at his position.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All of that points to a high floor and a high ceiling as the feature back, but we do have some moving parts here upcoming for 2020 to account for.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The first, is just where does Ekeler\u2019s expected efficiency loss meet his expected volume increase?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even for a consistently hyper-efficient player through three years, last year\u2019s 2019 campaign for Ekeler was bonkers. He averaged 9.2 yards per target after 7.7 through his first two seasons. He caught 85.2% of his targets after 75.0% through two seasons and had eight receiving touchdowns, the most by a running back in a season since <\/span><b>Marshall Faulk<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in 2001.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After the catch<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotoworld.com\/article\/going-deep\/yards-after-catch-regression-candidates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, no player in the NFL last season had more yards created after the catch over expectation than Ekeler did<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> per Hayden Winks of Rotoworld. All of this led to Ekeler scoring the second-most PPR receiving points ever in a season for a running back while actually scoring the most 0.5 PPR points through receiving for back in a single season.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The second is how much of a volume increase can we anticipate?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ekeler\u2019s splits without Gordon have been sensational in terms of overall usage, but the Chargers were also limited with overall depth those weeks. The secondary backs Ekeler (5\u201910\u201d, 200 pounds) shared snaps with over that sample were <\/span><b>Justin Jackson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (6\u20190\u201d, 199 pounds) and <\/span><b>Troymaine Pope<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (5\u20199\u201d, 205 pounds), two other backs who are in the same bucket as undersized options. Just two running backs over the past five seasons (McCaffrey in 2019 and <\/span><b>Devonta Freeman<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in 2015) have weighed fewer than 210 pounds and finished the season top-10 in the league in running back touches.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Going out and drafting <\/span><b>Joshua Kelley<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (5\u201911, 212) adds a little more size to the backfield to take on more of the potential between the tackles runs and\u2026 potentially the money touches. For his career, Ekeler has converted 4-of-13 carries inside of the 5-yard line for touchdowns. Still, even in adding a bigger body, it is better for Ekeler that it was done via drafting an inexperienced player over a veteran. We do not know if Kelley is good enough to truly threaten Ekeler, but he is an added variable to consider.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Chargers are also going through a transition phase in which they have moved on from long-running quarterback <\/span><b>Philip Rivers<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for the combination of <\/span><b>Tyrod Taylor<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> potentially starting the season prior to handing the reins over to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/2020-draft-coverage-justin-herbert-chargers-fantasy-football\/\"><b>Justin Herbert<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who the Chargers selected with the sixth overall pick in this year\u2019s draft.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rivers has been a long-time fantasy-friendly quarterback in terms of peppering his running backs with opportunities in the passing game. Of active quarterbacks with at least 1,000 career pass attempts, Rivers has targeted his running backs 26.0% of the time, trailing only <\/span><b>Drew Brees<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (27.4%) and <\/span><b>Mitchell Trubisky<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (26.7%) of those passers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Taylor targeted his running backs on 19.2%, 19.9%, 27.8%, and 15.9% of his targets over the 2015-2018 seasons. His spike year in targets came in 2017. <\/span><b>LeSean McCoy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> led Buffalo in targets from Taylor that season (76). The context here is that the next leading targets for the team were <\/span><b>Zay Jones, Charles Clay<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and <\/span><b>Deonte Thompson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, while the 2020 Chargers still have <\/span><b>Keenan Allen, Mike Williams<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and <\/span><b>Hunter Henry<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on the roster.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The college game is a little different, but Herbert target backs 13.7% and 10.6% of the time the past two seasons at Oregon. While Ekeler\u2019s receiving ability should increase the rate in which both 2020 quarterbacks have thrown to their running backs, the loss of Rivers should also decrease the rate in passing volume that goes to the backfield.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another element in play with the departure of Rivers is how this alters the team philosophy in general offensively. Prior to joining the Chargers as head coach in 2017, Anthony Lynn was the assistant head coach, offensive coordinator and running backs coach for the previous four seasons for the Jets and Bills. In those seasons working backwards, those teams ranked 30th, 30th, 25th, and 29th in overall passing plays run during the season. Those 30th ranked seasons came attached to Taylor as the starting quarterback. In Taylor\u2019s three years as primary starting quarterback, his teams have attempted 476, 474, and 465 passes. The Chargers have ranked 10<sup>th<\/sup>, 26<sup>th<\/sup> and 12<sup>th<\/sup> in passing volume the past three seasons under Lynn with Rivers, attempting 597, 512, and 583 passes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>In the offseason, the Chargers major acquisitions have been acquiring right guard <strong>Trai Turner<\/strong> in a trade, while signing right tackle <strong>Bryan Bulaga<\/strong>, cornerback <strong>Chris Harris<\/strong>, defensive tackle <strong>Linval Joseph<\/strong> and outside linebacker <strong>Nick Vigil<\/strong> in free agency. Game script ultimately drives passing volume and the Chargers just had a top-10 draft pick on their own merit, but the early signal here is to anticipate a team that is going to have a major reduction in passing output and play through their run game and defense. That transition can significantly impact the fantasy ceilings of the entire core of the offense, who all have had strong reliance predicated on their passing volume and efficiency.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All in all, there is a lot to take in on both sides here. When you look at some of the highlighted names in this piece when examining Ekeler\u2019s ceiling, you see names such as McCaffrey, Kamara, Faulk, and Freeman. That is the type of upside Ekeler possesses from a fantasy level. Also, unlike Kenyan Drake from yesterday, Ekeler does have a long term commitment from his organization. Those are all major pros to the sided of still paying the sticker price on Ekeler despite his enormous boost in market value.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The other side is that there is sound process in moving a qualifying \u201cundersized\u201d back coming off a career season at what could potentially be his apex cost. One with added insecurities on the team level changing quarterbacks. Those two counterpoints leave a lot of variance for how owners in your league will view Ekeler from a buy and sell stance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/early-2020-fantasy-football-position-rankings-running-back-cmc-saquon-barkley\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I have Ekeler as a fringe RB1 in PPR formats for 2020<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. I have significant regression cooked into his projections, but his added receiving production through reduction of his 2019 totals still offers a lot at the position, while he still has that upside in his pocket should his splits without Gordon on the field hold water. But <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/2020-dynasty-fantasy-football-top-300-rankings\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I am lower than the current market in Dynasty startup ADP by nearly a full round<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In dynasty, every player has potential to be both a buy and sell at the same time. You just have to find the proper context in your league on which he is valued per owner. Startup ADP and cost are not going to be an exact market for you with team context a driving force in established leagues, but here are the buy and sell point suggestions using that as guideline pending which side you fall on.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>2020 Rookie Pick Value: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Early Mid First (1.04-1.07)<\/span><br \/>\n<b>RB Value Targets<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, Kenyan Drake<\/span><\/b><br \/>\n<b>WR Value Targets: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Cooper Kupp, Calvin Ridley<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><b>TE Value Targets: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mark Andrews<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Now that free agency, the NFL Draft, and the schedule  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":19931,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"Austin Ekeler has a lead role and a new contract. 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