{"id":20585,"date":"2020-06-23T11:43:46","date_gmt":"2020-06-23T15:43:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=20585"},"modified":"2020-07-20T13:55:13","modified_gmt":"2020-07-20T17:55:13","slug":"dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-joe-mixon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-joe-mixon\/","title":{"rendered":"Dynasty Buy, Sell, Or Hold: Joe Mixon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now that free agency, the NFL Draft, and the schedule release have all passed, we have our initial layout in place in team depth charts and strength of schedule. With that, we want to take a look at some players across the fantasy landscape that are either polarizing, over or undervalued, or just interesting topics of discussion and walk through some pros and cons of where those players are regarded in fantasy circles.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So far we have explored players such as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-kenyan-drake\/\"><b>Kenyan Drake<\/b><\/a><b>, <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-austin-ekeler\/\"><b>Austin Ekeler<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-marquise-brown\/\"><b>Marquise Brown<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-tyler-higbee\/\"><b>Tyler Higbee<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-mecole-hardman\/\"><b>Mecole Hardman<\/b><\/a><b>,<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-nick-chubb\/\"><b>Nick Chubb<\/b><\/a><b>, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the trio of<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-devante-parker-preston-williams-mike-gesicki\/\"><b>DeVante Parker, Preston Williams <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and <\/span><b>Mike Gesicki<\/b><\/a> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-d-j-chark\/\"><b>D.J. Chark<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-odell-beckham\/\"><b>Odell Beckham<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-aaron-jones\/\"><b>Aaron Jones<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">,\u00a0 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-leonard-fournette\/\"><b>Leonard Fournette<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-amari-cooper\/\"><b>Amari Cooper<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-cooper-kupp\/\"><b>Cooper Kupp<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-derrick-henry\/\"><b>Derrick Henry<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/dynasty-buy-sell-or-hold-evan-engram\/\"><b>Evan Engram<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. For this installment, we are looking into <\/span><b>Joe Mixon.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/fantasy-football-rankings-2020-draft-strategy\/\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For more fantasy content, check out our offseason fantasy football hub with rankings, strategy, and more.<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>Week 1 Age<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 24.1<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><b>Contract<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Signed through 2020<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Mixon.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-20589 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Mixon.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1049\" height=\"521\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Using the Dynasty ADP app available at <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotoviz.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">RotoViz<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">,\u00a0 Mixon has continued to see his draft position rise each offseason, settling in as a fringe Round 1\/Round 2 draft pick now in startups. Through three NFL seasons, Mixon has had his touches rise every season from the year prior, going for 208 touches as a rookie, up to 280 touches in 2018, and hitting 313 touches a year ago, which ranked seventh among all backs in the league.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixon turned those touches into 1,424 yards from scrimmage (11th), becoming the just the fourth Cincinnati running back to reach 1,400 yards in back-to-back seasons, joining James Brooks, Corey Dillon, and Rudi Johnson.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Though his 2019 season was strong in totality, his season was very much a tale of two halves and did not provide fantasy owners with the wire-to-wire output that his end of the year totals may suggest.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>2019 Game Log<\/b><\/p>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' 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Rank<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>SEA<\/td><td>37.70%<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>1.7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>3.7<\/td><td>58<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>SF<\/td><td>54.30%<\/td><td>11<\/td><td>17<\/td><td>1.5<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5.7<\/td><td>46<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>BUF<\/td><td>57.40%<\/td><td>15<\/td><td>61<\/td><td>4.1<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>34<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>17.5<\/td><td>10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>PIT<\/td><td>60.90%<\/td><td>15<\/td><td>62<\/td><td>4.1<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><td>4<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>10.3<\/td><td>32<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>ARI<\/td><td>62.70%<\/td><td>19<\/td><td>93<\/td><td>4.9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>16<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>11.9<\/td><td>28<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>BAL<\/td><td>48.40%<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>1.2<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>29<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5.9<\/td><td>39<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7<\/td><td>JAC<\/td><td>54.20%<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>0.2<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>7.4<\/td><td>31<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8<\/td><td>LAR<\/td><td>50.60%<\/td><td>17<\/td><td>66<\/td><td>3.9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>4<\/td><td>4<\/td><td>11<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>17.7<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10<\/td><td>BAL<\/td><td>76.00%<\/td><td>30<\/td><td>114<\/td><td>3.8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>37<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>17.1<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11<\/td><td>OAK<\/td><td>58.70%<\/td><td>15<\/td><td>86<\/td><td>5.7<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>17<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>17.3<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12<\/td><td>PIT<\/td><td>69.00%<\/td><td>18<\/td><td>79<\/td><td>4.4<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>7.9<\/td><td>27<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>13<\/td><td>NYJ<\/td><td>78.80%<\/td><td>19<\/td><td>44<\/td><td>2.3<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>4<\/td><td>4<\/td><td>26<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>17<\/td><td>16<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14<\/td><td>CLE<\/td><td>58.70%<\/td><td>23<\/td><td>146<\/td><td>6.3<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>4<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>40<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>27.6<\/td><td>3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15<\/td><td>NE<\/td><td>66.70%<\/td><td>25<\/td><td>136<\/td><td>5.4<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>20<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>18.6<\/td><td>11<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16<\/td><td>MIA<\/td><td>43.30%<\/td><td>21<\/td><td>50<\/td><td>2.4<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>23<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9.3<\/td><td>32<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>17<\/td><td>CLE<\/td><td>73.90%<\/td><td>26<\/td><td>162<\/td><td>6.2<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>14<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>30.6<\/td><td>4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Through nine weeks in 2019, Mixon was a fantasy nightmare. Over those eight games played, Mixon had registered just 430 yards from scrimmage (37th<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">among running backs) on 120 touches (23rd). Over that span, he was the RB36 in overall scoring while accounting for 33.9% of the Cincinnati offensive touches.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Out of the bye from Weeks 10-17, the Bengals swerved into him as the focal point of their offense. The team also came out of the bye starting fourth-round rookie <\/span><b>Ryan Finley <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">for three weeks, but even after the Bengals were through with their official look at Finley, they continued to run their offense through Mixon.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixon handled 49.9% of the team touches over his final eight games. His 193 touches and 994 yards from scrimmage trailed only <\/span><b>Christian McCaffrey\u2019s<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 196 opportunities and 1,148 yards over that span while Mixon was the RB4 overall in fantasy scoring. If only we could get Mixon versus the Browns every week. In six career games against Cleveland, Mixon is averaging 134.7 yards from scrimmage per game with four top-10 scoring weeks. Not solely schedule induced, Mixon also had high workhorse games against strong run defenses in New England and Baltimore.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With that late-season surge, Mixon closed the year handling 84.0% of the Cincinnati backfield rushing attempts (third in the league) and 79.0% of their overall backfield touches, which also ranked third.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixon did not score his first touchdown on the ground until Week 11 despite having seven carries inside of the 5-yard line over his opening nine games. Base rate for the league in 2019 was converting 48.1% of carries inside of the five for touchdowns.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From a tackle-breaking stance, Mixon ranked fifth in the league in forced missed tackles on rushing attempts and ranked 15th in that same department in 2018. His rate of explosive gains did decrease, with 30.6% of his runs going for five or more yards (down from 35.4% in 2018) and 10.4% going for 10 or more yards (down from 14.4%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Bengals offensive line ranked 26th in adjusted line yards created in 2019 (3.90) while their running backs collectively ranked 24th in the league in yards before contact per carry (1.10) despite the Bengals regularly having box advantages. From the school of Sean McVay, Zac Taylor was able to incorporate a scheme that gave Mixon light boxes frequently. The Bengals ran 66% of their rushing plays from 11 personnel, the highest rate in the league in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Not just impacted by end of game runs chasing points on the scoreboard, that rate was 60% in the first half of games, which ranked fifth. As a byproduct, Mixon ran into boxes of eight or more defenders on just 7.9% of his carries, which was the third-lowest rate in the league behind <\/span><b>Devin Singletary<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (5.3%) and <\/span><b>David Johnson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (5.3%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Bengals will be getting redshirt rookie left tackle <\/span><b>Jonah Williams<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> back and signed veteran guard <\/span><b>Xavier Su\u2019a-Filo<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in free agency, but this offensive line still remains a question mark.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The other element in play when you circle back to Mixon\u2019s game log in 2019 and career output is that although he was treated as a workhorse running back, we are still lacking his complete usage in the passing game. After averaging 13.8 yards per reception with nine receiving scores in college, Mixon has finished no higher than 25th among running backs in receiving points per game over his first three seasons.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over the past two seasons as the lead back, Mixon has still ranked 21st and 17th in routes run for all backs in the league. Even over that end of season breakout a year ago, Mixon still ran fewer pass routes (118) than <\/span><b>Giovani Bernard<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (129). <\/span><b>Joe Burrow <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">frequently used a strong pass catching back such as <\/span><b>Clyde Edwards-Helaire<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> a year ago which gives hope that the receiving ceiling can be unlocked for Mixon, but the usage in that role needs to be ramped up firsthand and what keeps him joining the absolute elite company at the position.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bringing this home, Mixon is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Although the recent news about Dalvin Cook potentially holding out has been an added fear for fantasy players,<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nfl\/news\/the-bengals-are-preparing-for-a-possible-holdout-with-running-back-joe-mixon-per-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> there were early whispers of the threat of a potential holdout for Mixon back in early April<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> right after McCaffrey and <\/span><b>Austin Ekeler<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> received new contract extensions while still signed. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fieldgulls.com\/2020\/4\/16\/21223421\/why-4th-year-players-chris-carson-joe-mixon-wont-hold-out-new-cba-seattle-seahawks-bengals-accrued\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The new CBA makes it harder for backs under rookie contracts to accrue full NFL seasons holding out<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but after recent seasons from <\/span><b>Le\u2019Veon Bell<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>Melvin Gordon<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, even the potential threat of a holdout is something that is no longer taken lightly by fantasy players.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Things have been quiet on the Mixon front since April, but we will not truly know how serious any contract schism is until teams have to report to training camp, whenever that may be in this unique environment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All things equal and present on the field, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/early-2020-fantasy-football-position-rankings-running-back-cmc-saquon-barkley\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I am high on Mixon for the 2020 season<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. With the potential improvements on the offensive line, in a scheme that can generate light boxes, and the longer play that eventually he will be used more in the passing game, Mixon is a young workhorse back, which are in short supply. At only age 24 this season, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/2020-dynasty-fantasy-football-tiers-rankings-running-backs\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixon still carries a lot of Dynasty appeal<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but a potential team change and contract dispute still hang in the balance while we still have to take a step of faith that he will be used more effectively as a passer to make a true jump into an alpha-back for fantasy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As usual in closing here, in dynasty, every player has potential to be both a buy and sell at the same time. You just have to find the proper context in your league on which he is valued per owner. Startup ADP and cost is not going to be an exact market for you with team context a driving force in established leagues, but here are the buy and sell point suggestions using that as guideline pending which side you fall on.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>2020 Rookie Pick Value: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">High First (1.01)<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><b>RB Value Targets: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nick Chubb, Miles Sanders<\/span><b><br \/>\n<\/b><b>WR Value Targets: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tyreek Hill, D.J, Moore, Chris Godwin<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><b>TE Value Targets<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: George Kittle<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #339966;\"><em>Be sure to pick up a copy of Warren Sharp's new book:<\/em><\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/warren-sharp-book-2020-football-preview\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text&utm_campaign=2020-book\"><strong>2020 Football Preview<\/strong><\/a><span style=\"color: #339966;\"><em>, available for pre-sale now with an early-bird special price!<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #339966;\"><em>This book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal in mind: to get you prepared for the 2020 season by delivering the <strong>smartest<\/strong>\u00a0information in the\u00a0<strong>fastest<\/strong>, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Now that free agency, the NFL Draft, and the schedule  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"Diving into Joe Mixon&#039;s fantasy football dynasty value for the 2020 NFL season.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-20585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fantasy","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20585"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20585\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20585"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}