{"id":21440,"date":"2020-07-15T12:08:04","date_gmt":"2020-07-15T16:08:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=21440"},"modified":"2020-07-22T12:09:35","modified_gmt":"2020-07-22T16:09:35","slug":"receiver-red-zone-fantasy-points-expectation-odell-beckham-marvin-jones","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/receiver-red-zone-fantasy-points-expectation-odell-beckham-marvin-jones\/","title":{"rendered":"Wide Receiver Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Following <\/span>what we can take away from team production in the red zone<\/span><\/a>, we covered that the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL come from inside of the red zone and that not all red zone touches are created equal. With that, we have been diving into the red zone production versus expectation for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities in the red zone as opposed to just blanket red zone stats. So far we have covered the <\/span>quarterback<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>running back<\/span><\/a> positions with an eye on spotting some regression candidates in each direction heading into the 2020 season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

You can check out the post on team production linked above to get a more detailed picture of how not all red zone opportunities are equal, but the short story for the passing game is that over the past decade, 65.9% of all passing touchdowns have come from inside of the red zone while 64.3% of those red zone passing touchdowns have come from inside of the 10-yard line (which make up 42.4% of all passing touchdowns). Passing touchdown rates climb the closer the target comes to the end zone. As is the case as always, we always like to take a peek at just how sticky any of these stats can be.<\/span><\/p>\n

Year-Over-Year Red Zone Target Correlation<\/b><\/p>\n