{"id":21487,"date":"2020-07-16T11:34:25","date_gmt":"2020-07-16T15:34:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=21487"},"modified":"2020-08-10T17:28:59","modified_gmt":"2020-08-10T21:28:59","slug":"tight-end-red-zone-travis-kelce-mark-andrews","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/tight-end-red-zone-travis-kelce-mark-andrews\/","title":{"rendered":"Tight End Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Following <\/span>what we can take away from team production in the red zone<\/span><\/a>, we covered that the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL come from inside of the red zone and that not all red zone touches are created equal. With that, we have been diving into the red zone production versus expectation for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities in the red zone as opposed to just blanket red zone stats. So far we have covered the <\/span>quarterback<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>running back<\/span><\/a>, and <\/span>wide receiver positions<\/span><\/a> with an eye on spotting some regression candidates in each direction heading into the 2020 season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

You can check out the post on team production linked above to get a more detailed picture of how not all red zone opportunities are equal, but the short story for the passing game is that over the past decade, 65.9% of all passing touchdowns have come from inside of the red zone while 64.3% of those red zone passing touchdowns have come from inside of the 10-yard line (which make up 42.4% of all passing touchdowns). Passing touchdown rates climb the closer the target comes to the end zone and are more successful than rushing attempts at every yard line up until the 1-yard line.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the quarterback piece, we ran down the methodology in using player production per yard line in the red zone to create an expected points outline and in the wide receiver piece covered how sticky year-over-year targets are in each area of the red zone for individual players. Circle back to those posts if you still come across the questions.<\/span><\/p>\n

So with everything in place, let us jump into some of the output from a year ago to highlight those who out-produced and fell short of expected output on their actual opportunities per yard line in the red zone. For our player sample, we are using the top tight ends in current ADP minus <\/span>Rob Gronkowski<\/b> since he did not play last season, plus a bonus player in there for some grins (and potential fantasy viability). If there is another tight end that did not make the cut and you would like to know his output, just reach out to me on Twitter.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2019 TE Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation<\/b><\/p>\n