{"id":21670,"date":"2020-07-22T12:08:57","date_gmt":"2020-07-22T16:08:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=21670"},"modified":"2020-07-30T09:01:31","modified_gmt":"2020-07-30T13:01:31","slug":"wide-receiver-red-zone-reliance-michael-thomas-aj-brown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/wide-receiver-red-zone-reliance-michael-thomas-aj-brown\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy Football: Wide Receiver Red Zone Reliance"},"content":{"rendered":"

We have been spending some time in the red zone lately. First, we covered <\/span>what we can take away from team-level production in the red zone<\/span><\/a>. Following that up, we covered the actual fantasy scoring compared to expected points scored in the red zone for <\/span>quarterbacks<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>running backs<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>wide receivers,<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>tight ends<\/span><\/a>. With one final dive into red zone production, we have started to explore which players rely on the red zone the most and the least to produce their touchdowns. So far, we have looked at the red zone reliance for both the <\/span>quarterbacks<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>running backs<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Here, we can get a good gauge on which players are not solely reliant on their respective teams reaching one section of the field regularly and those who do. The added bonus gained is if you are in a league that rewards fantasy points based on touchdown length.<\/span><\/p>\n

When looking at red zone production from a top-down perspective in that opening post, we covered how the red zone is where the bulk of the scoring happens in the league. Not much a surprise, but even through the air, over the past decade 65.9% of all passing touchdowns have come from inside of the red zone, with 42.4% coming from inside of the 10-yard line and 27.5% occurring from five yards or closer. Touchdown success rates soar the closer you get to the end zone, making those targets valuable. Starting at the 10-yard line, pass attempts hit a 20% success rate as a floor per yard line to the end zone (compared to 10.6% at the 19-yard line) while climbing to 30% or higher starting at the 6-yard line and then 42.8%, 45.9% and finally 52.9% over the final three yard lines to the end zone.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With nearly two-thirds of the NFL passing touchdowns coming from inside of the red zone, everyone is dependent on those scores to some degree, but with a much larger percentage of passing touchdowns coming from outside of the red zone compared to rushing touchdowns, we have a lot more surface area for wide receivers to reach the end zone from longer range.<\/span><\/p>\n

Taking a look at the top-40 wideouts in current ADP, here is a breakdown on how those receivers have scored their touchdowns.<\/span><\/p>\n