{"id":32978,"date":"2021-03-09T15:27:06","date_gmt":"2021-03-09T20:27:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=32978"},"modified":"2021-03-15T14:57:24","modified_gmt":"2021-03-15T18:57:24","slug":"2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-rm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-rm\/","title":{"rendered":"2021 NFL Mock Draft 1.0 From Ryan McCrystal"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ryan McCrystal is the No. 2 most accurate mock drafter over the last five years, according to the Huddle Report. He will be posting weekly mock drafts for Sharp Football Analysis<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n

A lot will change in the coming weeks, but let\u2019s take a look at some projections for the 2021 NFL Draft just before we head into free agency. In this mock draft, I\u2019m projecting what I think each team will do based on a combination of needs, available talent, GM tendencies, and scheme fits.<\/span><\/p>\n

To simplify the process, no trades are projected in this version, which may lead to some players (especially quarterbacks) coming off the board slightly lower in this mock draft than they will on draft day.<\/p>\n

Pick #1<\/span>\u00a0Jacksonville Jaguars \u2013 Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson<\/b><\/h3>\n

Urban Meyer has been <\/span>effusive in his praise<\/span><\/a> of Trevor Lawrence dating back to before he was even a candidate for the Jaguars job. They\u2019re certainly doing their due diligence on Justin Fields and Zach Wilson, but Lawrence is a heavy favorite to land in Jacksonville.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #2<\/b><\/span>\u00a0New York Jets \u2013 Zach Wilson, QB, BYU<\/b><\/h3>\n

Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has spent his entire NFL career coaching under Kyle Shanahan, so we can probably assume he\u2019ll look for a similar passer to guys with whom Shanahan has found success. Assuming GM Joe Douglas and HC Robert Saleh (who also worked with Shanahan in San Francisco) are on the same page, that likely means the Jets will favor accuracy and decision making over athleticism, which probably tips the scales in Zach Wilson\u2019s favor\u2014although it certainly doesn\u2019t rule out Justin Fields, who has demonstrated a solid skillset in those areas as well.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #3 <\/b><\/span>Miami Dolphins \u2013 Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon<\/b><\/h3>\n

Protecting <\/span>Tua Tagovailoa<\/b> and helping him feel more comfortable in the pocket should be the Dolphins\u2019 offseason priority. He excelled throwing downfield at Alabama, but it was a glaring weakness to his game as a rookie in the NFL. With improved protection, he may able to regain his form in that area. It\u2019s also worth noting this is the slot other QB-needy teams will be trying to trade into\u2014the Panthers and Broncos are probably best positioned to make that move.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #4 <\/b><\/span>Atlanta Falcons \u2013 Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida<\/b><\/h3>\n

New head coach Arthur Smith relied heavily on play-action as Tennessee\u2019s offensive coordinator the past two seasons (35% of their pass attempts in 2020, according to Sports Info Solutions). And on those play-action attempts, tight ends saw a 24% target share. Kyle Pitts would thrive in this offense, potentially allowing Atlanta to make another push at contending before Matt Ryan\u2019s window closes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #5<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Cincinnati Bengals \u2013 Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern<\/b><\/h3>\n

The Bengals are in a good position to address either the offensive line or their receiving corps. Given the scarcity of high-end offensive line talent, teams in similar situations have historically tended to address the offensive line first, knowing there will be plenty of impact weapons available on Day 2.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #6 <\/b><\/span>Philadelphia Eagles \u2013 Ja\u2019Marr Chase, WR, LSU<\/b><\/h3>\n

According to <\/span>ESPN\u2019s Chris Mortensen<\/span><\/a>, owner Jeff Lurie has instructed the team to build around <\/span>Jalen Hurts<\/b>, at least in the short term. Ja\u2019Marr Chase is a more traditional outside receiver compared to the undersized speedster DeVonta Smith, likely making him a better complement to last year\u2019s first-round selection, <\/span>Jalen Reagor<\/b>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #7 <\/b><\/span>Detroit Lions \u2013 DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama<\/b><\/h3>\n

Detroit has two seasons before they can cut <\/span>Jared Goff<\/b> without taking a cap hit, making it likely they\u2019ll attempt to build around him in the short term. If <\/span>Kenny Golladay<\/b> returns (he will not be franchise tagged), DeVonta Smith looks like the ideal complement to his skillset; if not, any of the top receivers are equally in play.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #8 <\/b><\/span>Carolina Panthers \u2013 Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State<\/b><\/h3>\n

The Panthers reportedly were in on the <\/span>Matthew Stafford<\/b> sweepstakes and have <\/span>interest in <\/span>Deshaun Watson<\/b><\/a> as well. Clearly, they\u2019re hoping for an upgrade from <\/span>Teddy Bridgewater<\/b> sooner rather than later, making them one of the favorites to land Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, or Trey Lance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #9 <\/b><\/span>Denver Broncos \u2013 Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech<\/b><\/h3>\n

During new GM George Paton\u2019s time as assistant GM in Minnesota, the Vikings drafted three cornerbacks in the first round. So it appears to be a position he values targeting early in the draft. Caleb Farley and Patrick Surtain II would both be justified top-10 selections.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #10 <\/b><\/span>Dallas Cowboys \u2013 Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama<\/b><\/h3>\n

Chidobe Awuzie<\/b> and <\/span>Jourdan Lewis<\/b> both hit free agency this offseason, and it\u2019s possible neither returns to Dallas. If either Farley or Surtain is still on the board, it would be a perfect blend of need and value for the Cowboys.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #11<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>New York Giants \u2013 Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama<\/b><\/h3>\n

GM Dave Gettleman has a history of drafting big, athletic defensive tackles (Star Lotulelei, Vernon Butler in Carolina) and the defensive line appears to be a glaring need unless <\/span>Dalvin Tomlinson<\/b> and <\/span>Leonard Williams<\/b> are both re-signed (Williams was tagged on Tuesday).<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #12<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>San Francisco 49ers: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina<\/b><\/h3>\n

Seven different cornerbacks played at least 200 snaps for San Francisco in 2020 and the result, outside of pending free agent <\/span>Jason Verrett<\/b>, was inconsistent. There appears to be a consensus that Surtain, Farley, and Jaycee Horn will be the first three cornerbacks off the board, with one of them likely landing here unless significant upgrades are added via free agency.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #13 <\/b><\/span>Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech<\/b><\/h3>\n

Upgrading protection for <\/span>Justin Herbert<\/b> is an offseason priority. New OC Joe Lombardi comes from New Orleans where the Saints heavily favor a zone-blocking scheme that should be familiar to Christian Darrisaw from his days at Virginia Tech, allowing for a smooth transition to the pros.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #14<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Minnesota Vikings: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State<\/b><\/h3>\n

Anthony Barr\u2019s<\/b> future with the Vikings is up in the air\u2014it likely relates to their ability to restructure his contract\u2014and if he\u2019s gone, Micah Parsons becomes an obvious target as a replacement.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #15 <\/b><\/span>New England Patriots: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame<\/b><\/h3>\n

With so many needs, the Patriots\u2019 draft strategy is difficult to predict\u2014and maybe that makes them a strong candidate to trade down. Belichick often likes linebackers with great range (<\/span>Jamie Collins<\/b> comes to mind), which could entice him to pair Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah with <\/span>Dont\u2019a Hightower<\/b>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #16 <\/b><\/span>Arizona Cardinals \u2013 Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama<\/b><\/h3>\n

Kliff Kingsbury\u2019s offense favors short, quick passes\u201457% of their throws were within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage last year, the eighth-highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. Jaylen Waddle\u2019s elusive ability after the catch would make him a natural fit in this scheme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #17 <\/b><\/span>Las Vegas Raiders \u2013 Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan<\/b><\/h3>\n

Clelin Ferrell<\/b> led the Raiders in pressure rate but ranked only 36th in the league in 2020, according to Sports Info Solutions. If they add another weapon like Kwity Paye, and Ferrell takes another step in his development, the Raiders pass rush could be substantially improved this fall.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #18 <\/b><\/span>Miami Dolphins \u2013 Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami FL<\/b><\/h3>\n

The recently released <\/span>Kyle Van Noy<\/b> was second on the Dolphins in pressure rate and third in sacks in 2020. Since a strong pass rush was a defining characteristic of their blitz-heavy defense, it\u2019s likely an area that will be addressed. Jaelan Phillips, Kwity Paye, Gregory Rousseau, and Azeez Ojulari are all candidates among a deep class of pass-rushers who figure to come off the board in this area.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #19 <\/b><\/span>Washington \u2013 Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State<\/b><\/h3>\n

With a good defense and an acceptable offense, Washington is unlikely to be drafting near the top of the draft in 2022. So while they need a quarterback of the future, their path to landing one isn\u2019t clear. As a result, they\u2019re probably among the teams who will be willing to gamble on Trey Lance\u2019s upside, even though he\u2019s inexperienced and untested against high-level competition.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #20<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Chicago Bears \u2013 Mac Jones, QB, Alabama<\/b><\/h3>\n

GM Ryan Pace and HC Matt Nagy appear to be lame ducks, making them desperate for any quarterback capable of winning in 2021 and thus saving their jobs. If they can\u2019t land a veteran on the trade market, Mac Jones is an obvious fit on draft day, given his strengths as an accurate thrower and poised decision-maker, even if he lacks the other elite physical traits of most first-round quarterbacks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #21<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Indianapolis Colts \u2013 Sam Cosmi, OT, Texas<\/b><\/h3>\n

Anthony Castonzo\u2019s<\/b> retirement was among the most devastating losses a team suffered this offseason. If Indianapolis can\u2019t find a strong replacement in free agency, it would be difficult for them to justify spending this pick on any other position. Sam Cosmi, Christian Darrisaw, and Liam Eichenberg stand out as the most likely left tackle candidates on the board.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #22<\/span> <\/span><\/b>Tennessee Titans \u2013 Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State<\/b><\/h3>\n

After appearing in just one game as a rookie, 2020 first-round pick I<\/span>saiah Wilson<\/b> has already been shipped off to Miami. He was drafted for his run-blocking prowess to fill the shoes of the departed <\/span>Jack Conklin<\/b>, and the Titans could try to fill that void again with a similar prospect in Teven Jenkins.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #23 <\/b><\/span>New York Jets \u2013 Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami FL<\/b><\/h3>\n

The Jets have needs everywhere, so it\u2019s probably best to assume they\u2019ll lean towards a best available player approach with this selection\u2014and a trade down to acquire more Day 2 picks is a definite possibility. Given the wealth of pass-rush talent likely to be available here, it\u2019s reasonable to think Robert Salah may push for the team to add a weapon on the edge.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #24<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Pittsburgh Steelers \u2013 Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida<\/b><\/h3>\n

Pittsburgh is in salary cap distress this offseason, and it may force them to part with <\/span>JuJu Smith-Schuster<\/b>. Kadarius Toney was an elite weapon on the slot for Florida last year, and could easily step into Smith-Schuster\u2019s role in the Steelers\u2019 offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #25<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Jacksonville Jaguars \u2013 Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia<\/b><\/h3>\n

While Georgia transitioned to a more zone-heavy scheme in 2020, Eric Stokes has plenty of experience in man coverage, especially press-man, during his first two years in the program. New Jaguars defensive coordinator Joe Cullen played the ninth-highest rate of man coverage with Baltimore last season, according to Sports Info Solutions, and Urban Meyer typically favored man coverage at Ohio State.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #26 <\/b><\/span>Cleveland Browns \u2013 Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota<\/b><\/h3>\n

With <\/span>Odell Beckham Jr.<\/b> on the outside and <\/span>Jarvis Landry<\/b> in the slot, the Browns are strong in two receiver roles, but they\u2019ve failed to develop a dangerous weapon opposite OBJ on the outside. Rashod Bateman is a traditional outside receiver with decent size and enough speed to help stretch the field and should be an upgrade over free agent Rashard Higgins.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #27 <\/b><\/span>Baltimore Ravens \u2013 Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia<\/b><\/h3>\n

Players who accounted for 55.8% of Baltimore QB pressures from a season ago are set to become free agents, most notably <\/span>Matt Judon<\/b>, <\/span>Tyus Bowser<\/b>, and <\/span>Pernell McPhee<\/b>. Re-signing all of them will be difficult, which likely means filling some holes elsewhere. Adding to the unit through the draft would be the smart way to maintain a high talent level without overspending on one position.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #28<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>New Orleans Saints \u2013 Aaron Robinson, CB, UCF<\/b><\/h3>\n

New Orleans played among the highest rates of man coverage last season, so they\u2019re more likely to favor someone with experience in a similar scheme. According to Sports Info Solutions, Aaron Robinson played man coverage on 53% of his snaps at UCF, making him a logical fit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #29 <\/b><\/span>Green Bay Packers \u2013 Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame<\/b><\/h3>\n

David Bakhtiari\u2019s<\/b> torn ACL at the end of the 2020 season puts his 2021 campaign in jeopardy. Adding a prospect such as Liam Eichenberg would give them a viable option at left tackle to begin the year, while also giving them a potential long-term upgrade at right tackle.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #30 <\/b><\/span>Buffalo Bills \u2013 Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State<\/b><\/h3>\n

GM Brandon Beane has talked openly about <\/span>improving the run game<\/span><\/a>, and hinted that blocking was more of an issue than the running backs. This is a good class of interior lineman, so Buffalo has some options, but Wyatt Davis stands out as an immediate upgrade to their interior run blocking.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #31 <\/b><\/span>Kansas City Chiefs \u2013 Alijah Vera-Tucker, G\/T, USC<\/b><\/h3>\n

The Super Bowl exposed the Chiefs\u2019 offensive line, and even though injuries played a significant role in that performance, upgrades at multiple positions are potentially needed this offseason. Alijah Vera-Tucker would be particularly intriguing for a team rebuilding their offensive line due to his versatility (he\u2019s started at LG and LT for USC).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pick #32 <\/b><\/span>Tampa Bay Buccaneers \u2013 Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa<\/b><\/h3>\n

With <\/span>Chris Godwin<\/b> getting the franchise tag, re-signing <\/span>Shaq Barrett<\/b> has now become more difficult. If Barrett is <\/span>allowed to walk, Zaven Collins could potentially be a good fit in his place as a linebacker who excels on blitzes and playing downhill against the run. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ryan McCrystal is the No. 2 most accurate mock drafter […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"Before NFL free agency, Zach Wilson looks to be QB2 over Justin Fields while there is a high demand for offensive tackles like Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-32978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32978"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32978\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33005,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32978\/revisions\/33005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}