{"id":3395,"date":"2019-07-24T08:00:14","date_gmt":"2019-07-24T12:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=3395"},"modified":"2019-12-25T02:48:34","modified_gmt":"2019-12-25T07:48:34","slug":"fantasy-notebook-tight-end-correlations-usage-and-archetypes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/fantasy-notebook-tight-end-correlations-usage-and-archetypes\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy Football Notebook: Tight End Correlations, Usage, and Archetypes"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_postgray_box\">\n\t\t<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Which stats matter the most for Tight Ends?<\/li>\n<li>Why pass routes are more important than snaps<\/li>\n<li>Which Tight Ends relied on catches, yardage or TDs the most<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em>Make sure you don\u2019t miss any part of our fantasy football draft prep by checking out our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/fantasy-football-rankings-2019-draft-strategy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fantasy football draft kit<\/a>, which will feature all of Rich Hribar\u2019s articles, rankings, and a printable cheat sheet<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-764\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/favicon_32px.png\" alt=\"favicon_32px\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In our opening post on the tight end position, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/fantasy-notebook-tight-end-positional-overview\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">we took a top-down view of the position in bulk for fantasy.<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> In the follow-up, we\u2019re going to get into a little more individual player content by exploring archetypes and usage at the position, but first, we want to highlight some of the stats that matter most for the tight end position.<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t<div class=\"sf_content_post_box sfsidebar_banner sfsidebar_bannersingle\">\n\t\t\t<div id=\"text-21\" class=\"widget widget_text\" style=\"border-style: solid;border-color:transparent;border-width:0px;\">\t\t\t<div class=\"textwidget\"><div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-lg-12 col-md-12 col-sm-12 contentpackage-box\">\n<div class=\"sfsidebar_banner_inner\">\n<div class=\"sfsidebar_banner_inner\">\n<div class=\"sfsidebar_banner_inner\">\n<div class=\"sfsidebar_banner_inner\">\n<div class=\"sfsidebar_banner_inner\">\n<div class=\"sfsidebar_banner_inner\">\n<div class=\"sfsidebar_banner_inner\"><span style=\"color: #48c9b0;\">Sharp Football Betting Package<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"sfsidebar_banner_inner\">Take 15% off NFL Betting + Props<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"sfsidebar_banner_inner\"><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-pill button-xlarge button-custom button-1 pink-border-button\" href=\"\/nfl-plus-package\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=shortcode-ad\" target=\"_self\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text\">Learn More<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"sfsidebar_banner_inner\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div><\/div><div class=\"clearfix\"><\/div>\n<h2>Highest Correlation to Points Per Game for Tight Ends<\/h2>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='3400' id='jtrt_table_settings_3400' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Category\",\"PPR Pts\",\"St. Pts\"],[\"ReYds\",\"0.8186\",\"0.7189\"],[\"Rec.\",\"0.7822\",\"0.5808\"],[\"Targets\",\"0.6722\",\"0.4951\"],[\"ReTD\",\"0.5242\",\"0.6779\"],[\"Snaps\",\"0.3421\",\"0.2555\"]],[{\"row\":0,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":0,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":0,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":1,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":1,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":1,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":2,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":2,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":2,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":3,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":3,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":3,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":4,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":4,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":4,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":5,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":5,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":5,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"}],[],[]]<\/textarea><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='3400' id='jtrt_table_bps_3400' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_3400' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='3400' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Category<\/th><th>PPR Pts<\/th><th>St. Pts<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>ReYds<\/td><td>0.8186<\/td><td>0.7189<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rec.<\/td><td>0.7822<\/td><td>0.5808<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Targets<\/td><td>0.6722<\/td><td>0.4951<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ReTD<\/td><td>0.5242<\/td><td>0.6779<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Snaps<\/td><td>0.3421<\/td><td>0.2555<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Looking at every game played over the 2012-2018 seasons, these are the stats that matter the most for tight ends on the weekly level for fantasy output. You obviously can\u2019t have anything without first playing a snap and then being targeted, but empty volume calories also depreciate the raw opportunities of snaps and targets under actual output in catches and yardage. The tradeoff from receptions and touchdowns between each scoring format is hardly a revelation but shows how much you should be prioritizing players who score more touchdowns in standard leagues while reception-based players gain more viability in PPR.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">We\u2019re going to highlight some of those specific players in a bit, but first, we also want to take a look at which yearly stats have the most carryover for tight ends.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Year-Over-Year Correlation Categories for Tight Ends<\/h2>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='3401' id='jtrt_table_settings_3401' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Category\",\"YOY\"],[\"ReYd\\\/Gm\",\"0.6083\"],[\"Tgt\\\/Gm\",\"0.5936\"],[\"Rec\\\/Gm\",\"0.5836\"],[\"PPR Pts\\\/Gm\",\"0.5652\"],[\"ReYds\\\/Season\",\"0.5466\"],[\"Targets\\\/Season\",\"0.5368\"],[\"St Pts\\\/Gm\",\"0.5305\"],[\"Rec\\\/Season\",\"0.5266\"],[\"St. Pts\\\/Season\",\"0.4805\"],[\"PPR Pts\\\/Season\",\"0.4643\"],[\"Snaps\\\/Season\",\"0.4464\"],[\"ReTD\\\/Gm\",\"0.2915\"],[\"ReTD\\\/Season\",\"0.2641\"],[\"Catch %\\\/Season\",\"0.1107\"],[\"Yards\\\/Rec\",\"0.0568\"]],[{\"row\":0,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":0,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":1,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":1,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":2,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":2,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":3,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":3,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":4,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":4,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":5,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":5,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":6,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":6,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":7,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":7,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":8,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":8,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":9,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":9,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":9,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":9,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":10,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":10,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":10,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":10,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":11,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":11,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":11,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":11,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":12,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":12,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":12,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":12,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":13,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":13,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":13,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":13,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":14,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":14,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":14,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":14,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":15,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":15,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":15,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":15,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1}],[],[]]<\/textarea><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='3401' id='jtrt_table_bps_3401' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_3401' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='3401' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Category<\/th><th>YOY<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>ReYd\/Gm<\/td><td>0.6083<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tgt\/Gm<\/td><td>0.5936<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rec\/Gm<\/td><td>0.5836<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>PPR Pts\/Gm<\/td><td>0.5652<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ReYds\/Season<\/td><td>0.5466<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Targets\/Season<\/td><td>0.5368<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>St Pts\/Gm<\/td><td>0.5305<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rec\/Season<\/td><td>0.5266<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>St. Pts\/Season<\/td><td>0.4805<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>PPR Pts\/Season<\/td><td>0.4643<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Snaps\/Season<\/td><td>0.4464<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ReTD\/Gm<\/td><td>0.2915<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ReTD\/Season<\/td><td>0.2641<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Catch %\/Season<\/td><td>0.1107<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Yards\/Rec<\/td><td>0.0568<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The largest correlations in year-over-year production are at the per-game basis, which makes sense because it is inherently accounting for missed games over the bulk production. This is where you can sometimes find value hidden under the cloak of bulk output if the most current ADP is reflecting that overall output over respectable per game totals.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The most intriguing of the per-game stats is just how highly PPR points per game holds up compared to the field. Much more so than standard points, which can be explained by the high variance in touchdown output on both the per game and yearly levels, two categories listed towards the bottom. Bringing up the very tail end of things is efficiency in rate stats, something that should hardly be weighted in your expectations for a tight end.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">At the top of the pile, opportunity and production per game have the most yearly rollover, which is where your player dissection should begin. <\/span><\/p>\n<h2>True Usage: Snaps, Routes, and Targets<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">One of the things that is often looked at with a bigger magnifying glass now in fantasy is player snaps. The tight end position is the most unique to discuss through that lens. Because tight end is truly a dual-role position, it\u2019s more important to dive further under the hood of snaps played as a true opportunity for each player. We are looking for players who aren\u2019t just playing a lot of snaps but are running passing routes over blocking because that\u2019s where the opportunity intersects with fantasy production. <\/span><b>Jack Doyle<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> may be playing 81.1 percent of the team snaps per game (sixth for all tight ends), but he\u2019s running a pass route on just 46.5 percent of those snaps played (31st<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">) while ranking 17th in routes run per game. It\u2019s harder to run into tangible volume that way even though Doyle was targeted on 20.8 percent of his routes run, which ranked seventh at the position.\u00a0Last season, tight ends in totality ran a pass route on just 46 percent of their snaps played, but the top-12 scorers in terms of points per game ran a pass a route on 61 percent of their snaps.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3403\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/TESnap.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"488\" height=\"841\" \/><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">*Pass Routes via Pro Football Focus<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For those curious, routes run per snap rate carries a modest .6714 R-squared for yearly rollover over the past 10 years for players with over 100 total snaps. In that context, it\u2019s more stable than anything we discussed in the above yearly correlation for tight ends.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Over the past four seasons, no tight end has run more pass routes than <\/span><b>Travis Kelce<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, who ranked seventh, fifth, first, and second in overall routes run per season over that span. In 2018, Kelce ran 60 more pass routes than he did in the 2017 season. In terms of being targeted per route while running a high amount of routes, <\/span><b>Zach Ertz<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> has led all tight ends in that area in each of the past two seasons. You don\u2019t need my help in highlighting the worth of Kelce and Ertz, but there\u2019s a reason they reside on the top of fantasy expectations at the position.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Jimmy Graham<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> was the only tight end to rank in the top-12 in snap rate, routes run rate, and routes per game, but ranked 30th in target rate per route, which nuked his output as his production per target has dropped significantly over the past two seasons.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In the six games that both <\/span><b>Eric Ebron<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> and Jack Doyle played together, Doyle out-snapped Ebron 330-to-166, out-targeted him 33-to-22, out-caught him 26-to-18 and posted more yardage (245-to-228). Ebron still ran when on the field and was targeted on them at a very high rate, but inversely, the actual opportunities just weren\u2019t there for him. We\u2019ve already highlighted him as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/fantasy-notebook-2018-red-zone-underachievers\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">someone who massively outperformed near the goal line<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, so if his true usage reverts to an ancillary component in the offense once again with Doyle back in the lineup, then it will be hard for Ebron to live solely on touchdown production in that climate again.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Baltimore drafted a pair of rookie tight ends a year ago in <\/span><b>Hayden Hurst<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> and <\/span><b>Mark Andrews<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. Both were near each other in terms of snap rate, but Hurst was asked to block at a much higher rate of his snaps than Andrews, which gave Andrews the clear lane to be a more productive fantasy option, which is how it played out. Hurst ran a pass route on just 43.3 percent of his snaps as a rookie while Andrews was at 66.2 percent, which ranked ninth for the players above. In the 12 games the two played together, Andrews ran more pass routes than Hurst in all 12. The downside is that Hurst still also hurts Andrews from an overall snap stance, which hurt his overall routes run. In those same 12 games, Andrews only ran 16.9 pass routes per game with a high of 17 pass routes run in a game over the seven games the two played with <\/span><b>Lamar Jackson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> under center. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Andrews led all rookie tight ends in receiving yardage (552 yards) on the strength of 16.2 yards per catch, but this true usage is also why he caught two or fewer passes in five of those seven regular season starts made by Jackson while he posted more than three catches just once.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This also sheds some light on just how much of an uphill battle <\/span><b>Dallas Goedert<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> has despite being expected to take another step forward. No team used 12 personnel more on passing downs than the Eagles did in 2018 (34 percent of pass plays) yet Goedert still checked in below <\/span><b>Tyler Higbee<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> in routes run per game. The only time a pair of tight end teammates both qualified as top-12 scoring tight ends in the same season as Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Goedert has upside and talent to be a TE1 option, but his opportunity and true path to get there are still currently roadblocked by Zach Ertz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If looking for a deeper cut, <\/span><b>Darren Waller<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> hardly found the field behind <\/span><b>Jared Cook<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> last season, but when he did get on the field, he was running a pass route and getting targeted on those snaps. Given Cook\u2019s high rates across the board above, Waller isn\u2019t a poor dart throw in deep formats. He won\u2019t command the same target share that Cook did a year ago given the situations being altered by the additions of <\/span><b>Antonio Brown<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> and <\/span><b>Tyrell Williams<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, but Waller was a former college wide receiver that is unlikely to be blocking much on his anticipated increased snap share. <\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Relying on Receptions<\/h2>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='3404' id='jtrt_table_settings_3404' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Player\",\"PPR Rec%\",\"2018\",\"St Yd%\",\"2018\"],[\"Jack Doyle\",\"44.60%\",\"41.60%\",\"69.50%\",\"41.60%\"],[\"C.J. Uzomah\",\"42.50%\",\"41.00%\",\"71.90%\",\"40.90%\"],[\"Jason Witten\",\"41.10%\",\"n\\\/a\",\"75.30%\",\"n\\\/a\"],[\"Jordan Reed\",\"41.00%\",\"45.10%\",\"71.30%\",\"45.10%\"],[\"Jesse James\",\"40.70%\",\"35.60%\",\"68.00%\",\"35.60%\"],[\"Zach Ertz\",\"40.20%\",\"41.40%\",\"74.20%\",\"41.40%\"],[\"Austin Hooper\",\"40.10%\",\"43.60%\",\"70.10%\",\"43.60%\"],[\"Charles Clay\",\"40.10%\",\"56.10%\",\"71.70%\",\"56.20%\"]],[{\"row\":0,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":0,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":0,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":0,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":0,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":1,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":1,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":1,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":1,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":1,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":2,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":2,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":2,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":2,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":2,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":3,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":3,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":3,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":3,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":3,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":4,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":4,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":4,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":4,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":4,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":5,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":5,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":5,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":5,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":5,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":6,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":6,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":6,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":6,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":6,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":7,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":7,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":7,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":7,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":7,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":8,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":8,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":8,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":8,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3,\"className\":\"htCenter\"},{\"row\":8,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4,\"className\":\"htCenter\"}],[],[]]<\/textarea><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='3404' id='jtrt_table_bps_3404' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_3404' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='3404' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Player<\/th><th>PPR Rec%<\/th><th>2018<\/th><th>St Yd%<\/th><th>2018<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Jack Doyle<\/td><td>44.60%<\/td><td>41.60%<\/td><td>69.50%<\/td><td>41.60%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C.J. Uzomah<\/td><td>42.50%<\/td><td>41.00%<\/td><td>71.90%<\/td><td>40.90%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jason Witten<\/td><td>41.10%<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>75.30%<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jordan Reed<\/td><td>41.00%<\/td><td>45.10%<\/td><td>71.30%<\/td><td>45.10%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jesse James<\/td><td>40.70%<\/td><td>35.60%<\/td><td>68.00%<\/td><td>35.60%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zach Ertz<\/td><td>40.20%<\/td><td>41.40%<\/td><td>74.20%<\/td><td>41.40%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Austin Hooper<\/td><td>40.10%<\/td><td>43.60%<\/td><td>70.10%<\/td><td>43.60%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Charles Clay<\/td><td>40.10%<\/td><td>56.10%<\/td><td>71.70%<\/td><td>56.20%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The players above are the tight ends who have relied on receptions for score fantasy points the most over their careers. The arbitrary cutoff here is having 40 percent of your PPR fantasy points generated solely off receptions, which in turn, forces you to have over two-thirds of your standard fantasy production stem from receiving yardage alone. In turn, these are the guys relying on yardage more in standard formats over actually reaching the end zone.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If you recall our post last week on <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/fantasy-notebook-who-needs-the-red-zone-the-most-and-least\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">which tight ends relied the most on reaching the end zone as a byproduct of short-scoring opportunities<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, it\u2019s not a surprise that we see a direct overlap in that field with Doyle, <\/span><b>Jordan Reed<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and <\/span><b>Austin Hooper<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. These are you low aDOT, low-scoring options.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Jason Witten<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> falls right into this tier as someone who scored just 14 touchdowns over his four seasons prior to his one-year retirement while averaging fewer than 10 yards per catch in four of his previous six seasons played. The last time we saw Witten on the field at age -5, he posted just 3.9 receptions for 35 yards per game, the lowest marks of his career outside of his rookie season in 2003.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The one alpha tight end listed here is Zach Ertz, which is a minor red flag for if we ever see Ertz\u2019s overall volume decline, something that isn\u2019t out of the range of possibilities given all of the additions the Eagles made this offseason and another small step forward for second-year tight end Dallas Goedert. Ertz has scored eight times in each of the past two seasons, but his touchdown rate has only been better than the average top-12 fantasy scorers in one of his six seasons so far. He\u2019s also averaging just 11.0 yards per reception for his career and is coming off a career-low 10.0 yards per catch in 2018. That said, even a drop from the 26 percent of the team targets he had a year ago to somewhere between the 18.2 percent and 22.9 percent he posted over the 2016-2017 seasons still firmly has him in top-5 territory as a floor outcome.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Relying on Yardage<\/h2>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='3406' id='jtrt_table_settings_3406' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Player\",\"PPR Yd%\",\"2018\",\"St Yd%\",\"2018\"],[\"George Kittle\",\"51.80%\",\"53.20%\",\"80.80%\",\"80.70%\"],[\"Jared Cook\",\"49.10%\",\"46.30%\",\"79.40%\",\"71.30%\"],[\"Jason Witten\",\"44.40%\",\"n\\\/a\",\"75.30%\",\"n\\\/a\"],[\"Zach Ertz\",\"44.40%\",\"41.50%\",\"74.20%\",\"70.80%\"],[\"Travis Kelce\",\"46.80%\",\"45.30%\",\"74.00%\",\"69.70%\"],[\"Tyler Higbee\",\"44.40%\",\"44.80%\",\"73.70%\",\"70.90%\"],[\"Delanie Walker\",\"44.80%\",\"56.50%\",\"72.50%\",\"100.00%\"],[\"C.J. Uzomah\",\"41.40%\",\"41.80%\",\"71.90%\",\"70.90%\"],[\"Charles Clay\",\"42.90%\",\"49.20%\",\"71.70%\",\"100.00%\"],[\"Jordan Reed\",\"42.00%\",\"46.60%\",\"71.30%\",\"84.80%\"],[\"Vance McDonald\",\"45.90%\",\"45.90%\",\"71.00%\",\"73.50%\"],[\"Austin Hooper\",\"42.00%\",\"40.50%\",\"70.10%\",\"71.70%\"],[\"Ed Dickson\",\"43.10%\",\"31.60%\",\"70.10%\",\"43.10%\"]],[{\"row\":0,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":0,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":0,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":0,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":0,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":1,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":1,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":1,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":1,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":1,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":2,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":2,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":2,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":2,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":2,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":3,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":3,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":3,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":3,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":3,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":4,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":4,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":4,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":4,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":4,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":5,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":5,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":5,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":5,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":5,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":6,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":6,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":6,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":6,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":6,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":7,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":7,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":7,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":7,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":7,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":7,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":8,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":8,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":8,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":8,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":8,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":8,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":9,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":9,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":9,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":9,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":9,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":9,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":9,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":9,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":9,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":9,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":10,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":10,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":10,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":10,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":10,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":10,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":10,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":10,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":10,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":10,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":11,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":11,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":11,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":11,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":11,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":11,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":11,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":11,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":11,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":11,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":12,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":12,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":12,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":12,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":12,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":12,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":12,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":12,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":12,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":12,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4},{\"row\":13,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":13,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":13,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":13,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":13,\"col\":2,\"visualRow\":13,\"visualCol\":2,\"prop\":2},{\"row\":13,\"col\":3,\"visualRow\":13,\"visualCol\":3,\"prop\":3},{\"row\":13,\"col\":4,\"visualRow\":13,\"visualCol\":4,\"prop\":4}],[],[]]<\/textarea><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='3406' id='jtrt_table_bps_3406' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_3406' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='3406' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Player<\/th><th>PPR Yd%<\/th><th>2018<\/th><th>St Yd%<\/th><th>2018<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>George Kittle<\/td><td>51.80%<\/td><td>53.20%<\/td><td>80.80%<\/td><td>80.70%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jared Cook<\/td><td>49.10%<\/td><td>46.30%<\/td><td>79.40%<\/td><td>71.30%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jason Witten<\/td><td>44.40%<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>75.30%<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zach Ertz<\/td><td>44.40%<\/td><td>41.50%<\/td><td>74.20%<\/td><td>70.80%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Travis Kelce<\/td><td>46.80%<\/td><td>45.30%<\/td><td>74.00%<\/td><td>69.70%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tyler Higbee<\/td><td>44.40%<\/td><td>44.80%<\/td><td>73.70%<\/td><td>70.90%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Delanie Walker<\/td><td>44.80%<\/td><td>56.50%<\/td><td>72.50%<\/td><td>100.00%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C.J. Uzomah<\/td><td>41.40%<\/td><td>41.80%<\/td><td>71.90%<\/td><td>70.90%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Charles Clay<\/td><td>42.90%<\/td><td>49.20%<\/td><td>71.70%<\/td><td>100.00%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jordan Reed<\/td><td>42.00%<\/td><td>46.60%<\/td><td>71.30%<\/td><td>84.80%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vance McDonald<\/td><td>45.90%<\/td><td>45.90%<\/td><td>71.00%<\/td><td>73.50%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Austin Hooper<\/td><td>42.00%<\/td><td>40.50%<\/td><td>70.10%<\/td><td>71.70%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ed Dickson<\/td><td>43.10%<\/td><td>31.60%<\/td><td>70.10%<\/td><td>43.10%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This bucket of tight ends is made up of the players that have had at least 40 percent of their career PPR fantasy production stem solely from yardage to go along with 70 percent of their standard fantasy production.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For the players that find themselves in both the reception and yardage buckets \u2014 Ertz, Reed, Witten,\u00a0 Hooper, and <\/span><b>Charles Clay<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> \u2014 that means these are the players who largely have had low touchdown output for their careers. Ertz has been the exception the past two years because his volume is so high he accumulates production in all three phases of scoring, but even last season, 83 percent of his fantasy output came from receptions and yardage alone.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Travis Kelce has also overcome his early career scoring bugaboos over the past two seasons, but the reason he pops up here and not in the front end is because he\u2019s so dynamic after the catch. Kelce has ranked first or second at the position in yards generated after the catch in each of the past five seasons. Kelce\u2019s career YAC yardage alone accounts for 24 percent of his career fantasy output in PPR formats and 38 percent of his standard scoring output.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>George Kittle<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> is nearly a Kelce clone and the one tight end that had more yards after the catch than Kelce in 2018. In fact, Kittle\u2019s 873 yards after the catch last season was the highest recorded by a tight end in a single season as he paced his way to break the all-time overall receiving yardage mark in a single season. While repeating his lofty YAC rate (9.9 YAC per reception) from a year ago is unlikely, it also was no fluke as Kittle\u2019s 6.2 YAC\/reception ranked second for all tight ends with 40 or more catches during his rookie season. Kittle also had the early-career scoring issues that we saw from Kelce, scoring just seven times over his first two seasons. Kittle already popped up for us as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/fantasy-notebook-2018-red-zone-underachievers\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">a candidate to improve on his scoring output<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, an inline to fighting off any loss of output that stems from a reduction in team target share and loss off the top of his lofty yards generated after the catch in 2018.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A player we\u2019ve yet to talk about a lot so far is <\/span><b>Vance McDonald<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. Since entering the league in 2013, McDonald\u2019s 13.0 yards per reception ranks eighth among all qualifying tight ends (minimum of 50 receptions) but his career-high for receptions per game in a season is just 3.3 while he\u2019s scored just 12 career touchdowns. McDonald has the best opportunity of his career to finally take a true step forward in 2019. After posting career-highs in targets (72), receptions (50), yards (610), and catch rate (69.4 percent) to go along with four touchdowns in 2018, the Steelers lost 33.4 percent of their team targets (fifth highest) from a year ago. The Steelers also lost <\/span><b>Jesse James<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, who played 562 snaps last year compared to the 563 McDonald played. The only remaining tight end on the Steelers roster with NFL experience is <\/span><b>Xavier Grimble<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, who has just 22 career receptions over four seasons. Highlighting a 29-year-old tight end who has never played a full season as a breakout candidate isn\u2019t the safest bet, but McDonald has the objective runway to have build off his career-highs set a year ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Relying on Touchdowns<\/h2>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='3407' id='jtrt_table_settings_3407' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Player\",\"PPR ReTD%\",\"2018\",\"St TD%\",\"2018\"],[\"O.J. Howard\",\"29.80%\",\"24.90%\",\"40.80%\",\"34.70%\"],[\"Cameron Brate\",\"28.80%\",\"38.80%\",\"43.10%\",\"57.20%\"],[\"Dwayne Allen\",\"28.70%\",\"0.00%\",\"43.00%\",\"0.00%\"],[\"Tyler Eifert\",\"28.70%\",\"15.40%\",\"42.30%\",\"25.10%\"],[\"Hunter Henry\",\"28.00%\",\"n\\\/a\",\"41.00%\",\"n\\\/a\"],[\"Jonnu Smith\",\"27.40%\",\"28.20%\",\"42.00%\",\"41.10%\"],[\"Kyle Rudolph\",\"24.30%\",\"15.90%\",\"39.30%\",\"27.50%\"],[\"Jimmy Graham\",\"24.00%\",\"9.20%\",\"36.60%\",\"15.90%\"],[\"Trey Burton\",\"23.10%\",\"24.50%\",\"36.90%\",\"38.70%\"],[\"Vernon Davis\",\"22.00%\",\"15.90%\",\"33.40%\",\"23.70%\"],[\"Nick Vannett\",\"21.70%\",\"24.40%\",\"36.10%\",\"40.10%\"],[\"Gerald Everett\",\"21.70%\",\"20.80%\",\"33.60%\",\"33.60%\"],[\"Eric 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data-jtrt-table-id='3407' id='jtrt_table_bps_3407' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_3407' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='3407' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Player<\/th><th>PPR ReTD%<\/th><th>2018<\/th><th>St TD%<\/th><th>2018<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>O.J. Howard<\/td><td>29.80%<\/td><td>24.90%<\/td><td>40.80%<\/td><td>34.70%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cameron Brate<\/td><td>28.80%<\/td><td>38.80%<\/td><td>43.10%<\/td><td>57.20%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dwayne Allen<\/td><td>28.70%<\/td><td>0.00%<\/td><td>43.00%<\/td><td>0.00%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tyler Eifert<\/td><td>28.70%<\/td><td>15.40%<\/td><td>42.30%<\/td><td>25.10%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunter Henry<\/td><td>28.00%<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>41.00%<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jonnu Smith<\/td><td>27.40%<\/td><td>28.20%<\/td><td>42.00%<\/td><td>41.10%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kyle Rudolph<\/td><td>24.30%<\/td><td>15.90%<\/td><td>39.30%<\/td><td>27.50%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jimmy Graham<\/td><td>24.00%<\/td><td>9.20%<\/td><td>36.60%<\/td><td>15.90%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trey Burton<\/td><td>23.10%<\/td><td>24.50%<\/td><td>36.90%<\/td><td>38.70%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vernon Davis<\/td><td>22.00%<\/td><td>15.90%<\/td><td>33.40%<\/td><td>23.70%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nick Vannett<\/td><td>21.70%<\/td><td>24.40%<\/td><td>36.10%<\/td><td>40.10%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gerald Everett<\/td><td>21.70%<\/td><td>20.80%<\/td><td>33.60%<\/td><td>33.60%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eric Ebron<\/td><td>21.00%<\/td><td>35.10%<\/td><td>33.20%<\/td><td>49.90%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">To find the tight ends most reliant on reaching the end zone, we\u2019re looking for the ones who had at least 20 percent of their PPR output come from touchdowns while also at least one-third of their standard scoring stem from reaching the paint.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Both Tampa Bay tight ends lead the pack here. <\/span><b>Cameron Brate<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> shouldn\u2019t be a surprise since he\u2019s averaged just 28.0 receiving yards per game for his career but has 23 touchdown receptions over the past four seasons, the ninth-most over that span. Even with <\/span><b>O.J. Howard<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> sidelined last season, Brate offered no weekly stability or even a high-ceiling due to his touchdown dependency.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Howard, on the other hand, has a high ceiling when he finds the end zone and has posted elite yardage per reception numbers to date. What he needs is actual volume \u2014 and to play a full season \u2014 to make everything come together. 18.3 percent of Howard\u2019s receptions so far have gone for touchdowns, the second-highest rate for active tight ends. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">S<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">howcasing his explosiveness yet again with 16.6 yards per catch in 2018, Howard ranked fourth for all tight ends in receiving yardage per game (56.5) but ranked just 14th in targets per game (4.8) and tied for 13th at the position in receptions per game (3.4).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The only tight end with a higher touchdown per reception rate than Howard for their career is <\/span><b>Tyler Eifert<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. Unfortunately, the 29-year old hasn\u2019t played more than eight games since the 2015 season and if you look at the true usage chart to open, the Bengals were limiting his opportunities by making him a role player in the passing game in all likelihood as an attempt of preservation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">All of <\/span><b>Hunter Henry<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><b>Kyle Rudolph<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and Jimmy Graham were hits for tight ends who have relied on their teams setting up their touchdown opportunities to date. In that post, Henry appeared to only be limited by his actual playing time so far throughout his career compared to the others. Graham\u2019s recent output has just been him being defeated by Father Time compared to the player he used to be, but this is who Rudolph has been his entire run. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Never much of a yardage threat \u2014 he averaged 9.8 yards per catch over his eight-year career with one season over 634 yards \u2014 Rudolph was actually fourth for all tight ends in routes run per game last season, but his team target share (13.5 percent) was his lowest over his past four full seasons while he ranked 36th in target rate per route run at 14.2 percent. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Make sure you don\u2019t miss any part of our fantasy  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":3410,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-3395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fantasy","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-150x150.jpg","medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-300x200.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-768x512.jpg","large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-1024x683.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-694x694.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-500x500.jpg","portfolio-full":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-940x400.jpg","portfolio-one":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-540x272.jpg","portfolio-two":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-460x295.jpg","portfolio-three":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-300x214.jpg","portfolio-five":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-177x142.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-700x441.jpg","recent-works-thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-66x66.jpg","profile_24":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-24x24.jpg","profile_48":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-48x48.jpg","profile_96":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-96x96.jpg","profile_150":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-150x150.jpg","profile_300":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-300x300.jpg","fusion-200":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-200x133.jpg","fusion-400":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-400x267.jpg","fusion-600":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-600x400.jpg","fusion-800":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-800x533.jpg","fusion-1200":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-627925152-1200x800.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3395","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3395"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3395\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4540,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3395\/revisions\/4540"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/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