{"id":38130,"date":"2021-07-21T09:45:31","date_gmt":"2021-07-21T13:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=38130"},"modified":"2021-07-21T09:50:16","modified_gmt":"2021-07-21T13:50:16","slug":"2021-nfl-rookie-class-impact-nfc-west","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/2021-nfl-rookie-class-impact-nfc-west\/","title":{"rendered":"2021 NFL Rookie Class Impact: NFC West"},"content":{"rendered":"

With the 2021 NFL draft now in the rearview mirror and most of the rookies having already taken the practice field, we\u2019re starting to get an idea of how these draft classes will impact each roster this fall.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In this series, I\u2019ll break down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And while I won\u2019t assign a specific grade to each draft class, I will offer a quick assessment of the overall draft haul for each team and some thoughts on their draft process.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

All stats mentioned are from <\/span>Sports Info Solutions<\/span><\/a>, unless otherwise noted.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

AFC East<\/a> | AFC North<\/a> | AFC South | AFC West<\/a><\/em>
\nNFC East<\/a> | NFC North<\/a> | NFC South | NFC West<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Arizona Cardinals<\/h2>\n

The Cardinals\u2019 selection of LB <\/span>Zaven Collins<\/b> (first round) was somewhat surprising because it wasn\u2019t the most glaring area of need and the team has done a poor job evaluating and developing talent at the position in recent years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Collins is expected to start immediately as the Mike linebacker and will be expected to be the quarterback of the defense. We know Collins is an elite athlete, but a significant part of his task as a rookie will be communicating with the veterans and earning their trust.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

WR <\/span>Rondale Moore<\/b> (second round) will bring an electric skill set to Kliff Kingsbury\u2019s offense, likely lining up in the slot. <\/span>Christian Kirk<\/b> and Andy<\/strong> <\/span>Isabella<\/b> have been Kingsbury\u2019s speedsters in the slot, but Moore\u2019s track record at Purdue does not necessarily indicate he\u2019ll be used in the same way.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2020, Kirk and Isabella each saw an average depth of target from the slot greater than 10 yards downfield. So their speed has been used to stretch the field, whereas Moore has been used almost exclusively near the line of scrimmage. Moore saw an average depth of target of 2.4 yards over his final two seasons at Purdue.<\/span><\/p>\n

CB <\/span>Marco Wilson<\/b> (fourth round) might compete for playing time in a weak secondary. Wilson had a fantastic start to his career at Florida, but suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2018 and his production never recovered. Wilson was among the worst cornerbacks in the SEC in 2020, allowing 9.0 yards per target. But Arizona will obviously be hoping he returns to form now that he\u2019s two full years removed from the knee injury.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

S <\/span>James Wiggins<\/b> (seventh round) is another intriguing post-injury project for the Cardinals.<\/span><\/p>\n

Based on Sports Info Solutions\u2019 Points Saved metric (based on the EPA framework), Wiggins graded out at +12.3 in 2018. Following a torn ACL that wiped out his 2019 campaign, he checked in at -0.7 in 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Wiggins was a three-time member of Bruce Feldman\u2019s Freaks List and few players still on the board in the seventh round had as much athletic upside.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Prior to the draft, <\/span>Pro Football Network\u2019s Tony Pauline<\/span><\/a> reported the Cardinals were targeting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Patrick Surtain or receiver Jaylen Waddle, with Zaven Collins as the backup plan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s some helpful insight into GM Steve Keim\u2019s thought process, as he appeared to be targeting impact players at their greatest positions of need, but wasn\u2019t willing to reach for the next tier. With their top targets off the board, they settled for Collins, who they identified as the best available player\u4e00that\u2019s a smart approach to the draft.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Los Angeles Rams<\/h2>\n

Without a first-round pick due to the <\/span>Jalen Ramsey<\/b> trade, and with few holes to fill, the Rams likely failed to land any significant early contributors in this draft class.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Los Angeles had an opportunity to land an impact player in the second round, but instead added 155-pound receiver <\/span>Tutu Atwell<\/b>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As an undersized receiver, one would think Atwell would make a living as a dangerous playmaker on underneath routes, but that wasn\u2019t always the case at Louisville.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2020, Atwell averaged just 5.2 yards per target on routes within five yards of the line of scrimmage, ranked 84th out of 127 qualified receivers. In 2019, however, he ranked fourth (behind Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb and Tylan Wallace) with 10.4 yards per target.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The obvious explanation for these differences is Atwell is a scheme-dependent playmaker. Louisville\u2019s offense took a significant step backwards in 2020, and Atwell was no longer getting easy touches in the open field.\u00a0 If Sean McVay and staff can create opportunities for Atwell, he can be a productive complementary piece in the offense, but that is likely his ceiling.<\/span><\/p>\n

LB <\/span>Ernest Jones<\/b> (third round) was not a particularly productive playmaker at South Carolina. His 10.4% broken\/missed tackle rate in 2020 stands out as a red flag. Jones is also a significant liability in coverage. Opponents gained 0.9 EPA per target when throwing at Jones last season.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the Rams struggled to replace <\/span>Cory Littleton<\/b> after his departure last offseason so, despite these concerns, Jones could be in the mix for that job.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

DT <\/span>Bobby Brown III<\/b> (fourth round) will provide depth behind <\/span>Aaron Donald<\/b>, potentially easing Donald\u2019s workload to keep him fresh as he ages. Brown generated an 8.5% pressure rate last season, the fifth best among interior pass-rushers in the SEC.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Rams also added some size to the receiving corps with WR\/TE <\/span>Jacob Harris<\/b> (fourth round) and WR <\/span>Ben Skowronek<\/b> (seventh round). There won\u2019t be many targets available, but there could be some select situations where the 6\u20193\u201d Skowronek and 6\u20195\u201d Harris are used.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Factoring in the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey, the Rams didn\u2019t completely waste their draft capital from this class. However, it would not be shocking to look back on this class in three years and see Los Angeles failed to land a single starter.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If Atwell adds a new dynamic to the offense and others provide valuable depth on a championship team in the next few seasons, this class could be viewed as a success. Otherwise, it\u2019s hard to imagine Los Angeles feeling satisfied with this underwhelming haul.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Seattle Seahawks<\/h2>\n

Due to a number of trades, most notably the acquisition of safety <\/span>Jamal Adams<\/b>, Seattle ended up with only three selections in this draft class.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

WR <\/span>D\u2019Wayne Eskridge<\/b> (second round) is the only rookie with an obvious path to the field in 2021. He could be the third option in the passing game, replacing <\/span>David Moore<\/b>, who saw 47 targets a season ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the 5\u20199\u201d, 190-pound Eskridge probably can\u2019t be deployed in the same way as the 6\u20190\u201d, 215-pound Moore.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Eskridge primarily lined up on the outside at Western Michigan (79% of his targets) but at his size, he\u2019s probably better suited for a role in the slot. Unfortunately, <\/span>Tyler Lockett<\/b> is locked into the slot role, where he lined up on 75% of his routes last season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2020, Moore lined up in the slot on just 35% of his targets. So finding room for Eskridge on the field may be more difficult than simply inserting him into Moore\u2019s vacant role.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

CB <\/span>Tre Brown<\/b> (fourth round) might factor into the mix in the secondary out of necessity due to a lack of talent and depth at cornerback in Seattle.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Brown has strong athletic traits (4.42 in the 40, 38\u201d vertical) but his production at Oklahoma was underwhelming. In 2020, Brown allowed 5.7 yards per target and committed four pass interference penalties in 10 games.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

OT <\/span>Stone Forsythe<\/b> (sixth round) will likely be treated as a developmental prospect by Seattle, especially given their offseason emphasis on improving the run game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Forsythe was consistently effective in pass protection at Florida, but often a liability in the run game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition to these three draft picks, Seattle\u2019s draft capital contributed to the acquisitions of Jamal Adams, guard <\/span>Gabe Jackson<\/b>, and safety <\/span>Quandre Diggs<\/b>. So while this rookie class is underwhelming, they likely used their assets to acquire at least three starters.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This veteran-heavy plan could set Seattle up for a rough stretch in the future, but it\u2019s a somewhat understandable risk to take with Russell Wilson entering his age-33 season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

San Francisco 49ers<\/h2>\n

The 49ers obviously view <\/span>Trey Lance<\/b> (first round) as their quarterback of the future, but it\u2019s unclear if he\u2019ll have any role in 2021. Obviously, most rookie quarterbacks get on the field early these days, but if San Francisco is winning with <\/span>Jimmy Garoppolo<\/b>, perhaps they\u2019ll buck that trend.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If the 49ers make the switch to Lance, it will likely be due to his mobility. Excluding sacks, sneaks, and kneel downs, Lance averaged 7.9 yards per carry during his college career.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Lance also attempted 26% of his throws from outside the pocket, compared to just 9% by Garoppolo in San Francisco last season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So when Lance gets on the field, expect to see quite a few new wrinkles in Kyle Shanahan\u2019s offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

OG <\/span>Aaron Banks<\/b> (second round) might be the team\u2019s best bet to contribute immediately, as he\u2019s expected to compete for the starting job at right guard, where he could start next to his college teammate <\/span>Mike McGlinchey<\/b>. Banks started for 2.5 years at left guard for Notre Dame.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

RB <\/span>Trey Sermon<\/b> (third round) might have an easy path to playing time given the mediocre talent in San Francisco\u2019s backfield, but Shanahan's revolving door approach to the position makes it difficult to predict a significant role for anyone on the depth chart.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sermon is an incredibly dangerous runner in the open field, but isn\u2019t the type of back who can consistently create for himself without help from the offensive line. At Ohio State, Sermon averaged 10.9 yards per carry when he was untouched after two yards (ranked 11th in nation). However, he gained 0.4 yards when touched at or behind the line (ranked 108th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

CB <\/span>Ambry Thomas<\/b> (third round) fills a need in the secondary, but he might be more of a developmental prospect than an immediate starter. Thomas has speed (4.41 in the 40) and good length (32.25\u201d arms) which is likely what attracted San Francisco.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Thomas was only a one-year starter (opted out in 2020) and will have to transition to a new coverage scheme. Michigan played a high rate of man coverage (42% of Thomas\u2019 snaps), while San Francisco used man just 24% of the time in 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

S <\/span>Talanoa Hufanga<\/b> (fifth round) won\u2019t challenge for a starting role, but could get on the field in some sub-packages. Hufanga\u2019s coverage skills are lacking, but he was a dominant in-the-box run defender\u4e00a skill set which should also make him a valuable special teams contributor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The success of this class ultimately lives and dies with Trey Lance, especially considering the cost (three first-round picks). Shanahan and GM John Lynch are extremely secure in their jobs at the moment, but those seats will get hot if Lance doesn\u2019t pan out.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Outside of Lance, this still looks like a solid draft class, giving San Francisco a solid mix of immediate value and developmental talent.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With the 2021 NFL draft now in the rearview mirror […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"Ryan McCrystal breaks down the 2021 rookie impact for the NFC West including Trey Lance, Zaven Collins, Rondale Moore, and Trey Sermon.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-38130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38130","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38130"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38130\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38130"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38130"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38130"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}