{"id":39675,"date":"2021-08-23T13:22:11","date_gmt":"2021-08-23T17:22:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=39675"},"modified":"2021-08-26T10:12:42","modified_gmt":"2021-08-26T14:12:42","slug":"tracking-nfl-betting-line-movements-post-preseason-week-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/tracking-nfl-betting-line-movements-post-preseason-week-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Tracking NFL Betting Line Movements: Post-Preseason Week 2"},"content":{"rendered":"

We will be keeping track of line movements in the futures markets all season long and note any big movements on a weekly basis.<\/span><\/p>\n

*All lines are based on Draftkings odds from 8\/12\/21 and 8\/22\/21<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

If you want to bet to win this NFL season, you need to bet with us.\u00a0 There's a reason pro bettors and bookmakers alike respect us, and why we move betting lines on release.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

For a limited time only, enter coupon code NFLWINNERS<\/strong> to save\u00a0on<\/span> any of our NFL betting packages<\/a>!<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Offensive Rookie of the Year:<\/span><\/h2>\n

Justin Fields<\/b> +850 to +600
\n<\/span>Trey Lance<\/b> +800 to +700
\n<\/span>Kyle Pitts<\/b> +750 to +1000
\n<\/span>Zach Wilson<\/b> +1000 to +750
\n<\/span>Ja\u2019Marr Chase<\/b> +1000 to +1600
\n<\/span>Jaylen Waddle <\/b>+1800 to +2000
\n<\/span>Devonta Smith <\/b>+1800 to +2200
\n<\/span>Trey Sermon<\/b> +3500 to +2500
\n<\/span>Kadarius Toney<\/b> +2800 to +4000
\n<\/span>Terrace Marshall<\/b> Jr.<\/b> +4000 to +3500<\/span><\/p>\n

Move I Agree With:<\/b> Justin Fields<\/span><\/p>\n

As I noted in my value bets article, I still think Justin Fields is a value even after this line move. I know Matt Nagy reiterated this week that <\/span>Andy Dalton<\/b> will be the week one starter, but there are still three weeks left before that game for him to change his mind. Regardless, if Nagy really does want to \u201csee Dalton in the regular season,\u201d he won\u2019t need to see him very long versus the Rams defensive line before it\u2019s apparent he has seen enough. So with Fields playing as early as Week 1, I expect his number to be more in line with Trevor Lawrence as a co-favorite for the award once he does see the field.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Move I Disagree With<\/strong>: Terrace Marshall Jr.<\/span><\/p>\n

While I understand the move due to his first preseason game, history is just not on Marshall\u2019s side to win this award. Since 2010, only one WR has won the award and that was <\/span>Odell Beckham Jr. <\/b>in 2014 when <\/span>Blake Bortles<\/b> was the first quarterback selected (<\/span>Johnny Manziel<\/b> was second) and <\/span>Bishop Sankey<\/b> was the first running back selected, so not exactly the same caliber of competition that Marshall faces in this rookie class.<\/span><\/p>\n

We don\u2019t have to look back any further than last year when <\/span>Justin Jefferson <\/b>put up even better numbers than Beckham did in his rookie of the year but still finished a distant second to <\/span>Justin Herbert<\/b> in the voting. While Marshall may put together a great rookie season and be a viable option in fantasy, it\u2019s hard to see him getting the type of opportunity to even approach Jefferson\u2019s numbers with<\/span> DJ Moore<\/b>, <\/span>Robby Anderson<\/b>, and<\/span> Christian McCaffrey<\/b> all vying for targets in Carolina.<\/span><\/p>\n

Defensive Rookie of the Year:<\/span><\/h2>\n

Micah Parsons<\/b> +500 to +550
\n<\/span>Jamin Davis<\/b> +750 to +800
\n<\/span>Kwity Paye<\/b> +1000 to +1200
\n<\/span>Patrick Surtain<\/b> +1400 to +1200
\n<\/span>Carlos Basham Jr<\/b> +2500 to +3500
\n<\/span>Ronnie Perkins<\/b> +2800 to +3500<\/span><\/p>\n

Move I Agree With<\/strong>: Ronnie Perkins<\/span><\/p>\n

In his second preseason game, Perkins was given ample playing time getting 51% of the defensive snaps but failed to record a sack or even a tackle versus the Eagles' backups. Perkins just doesn\u2019t have any easy path to this award both because he doesn\u2019t have any easy path to playing time and because of the history of past winners. The Patriots brought in <\/span>Matt Judon<\/b> and <\/span>Kyle Van Noy<\/b> in the offseason to go along with last year's draft picks in <\/span>Josh Uche<\/b> and <\/span>Anfernee Jennings<\/b> who are all currently listed ahead of Perkins on the depth chart. On top of that, in the past 25 years of the award, no player has won it that was drafted after Round 2.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Move I Disagree With:<\/strong> Carlos Basham Jr.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is somewhat counterintuitive because I agree that his odds went in the right direction but feel like he is still overvalued at +3500. Comparing that to the other sites, he is +1500 at BetMGM and he isn\u2019t even listed on FanDuel, which seems more in line for a player that is currently listed third at his position on the Buffalo Bills\u2019 depth chart. As I mentioned in the writeup in my value bets article for<\/span> Azeez Ojulari<\/b>, sometimes opportunity is just as important as talent. While Basham Jr. does have talent, it\u2019s difficult to see him having the opportunity in Buffalo to be able to win this award.<\/span><\/p>\n

Miscellaneous Line Movements:<\/span><\/h2>\n

Surprisingly there was very little movement in the rest of the futures markets in the past 10 days but one team did have some movement, the Dallas Cowboys.<\/span><\/p>\n

Super Bowl Winner<\/strong>: +3000 to +3500
\n<\/span>Conference Winner<\/strong>: +1500 to +1600
\n<\/span>Division Winner<\/strong>: +130 to +150<\/span><\/p>\n

This move was due to the uncertainty surrounding the health of <\/span>Dak Prescott<\/b> and the conflicting reports coming out of Dallas in the past 10 days. So I think the move is warranted as Dak himself said on Hard Knocks that he is on a \u201cpitch count\u201d even in practice, which isn\u2019t a great sign three weeks away from their first game. For a team that ranked 23rd on defense in DVOA in 2020 that didn\u2019t make major upgrades, they would need Prescott to not only be fully healthy but to play at an MVP level in order to be serious contenders this year. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We will be keeping track of line movements in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7082,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"Tracking betting line changes over the course of the 2021 preseason for many NFL awards and futures","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-39675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7082"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39675\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}