{"id":78904,"date":"2026-01-07T10:00:25","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T15:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=78904"},"modified":"2026-02-18T14:32:30","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T19:32:30","slug":"college-bowl-predictions-pick-em-strategy-schedule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/college-bowl-predictions-pick-em-strategy-schedule\/","title":{"rendered":"College Bowl Game Predictions, Picks &#038; Analysis for Every Game"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The matchups for every 2025 Bowl Game as well as the College Football Playoff field have been announced.<\/p>\n<p>The only thing left to do is dominate your bowl pick 'em pool.<\/p>\n<p>We are here to help with predictions and analysis for every 2025 Bowl Game as well as some strategies to use in your bowl pick 'em pool.<\/p>\n<p>These picks will continue to be updated throughout bowl season, especially as we get news of players opting out.<\/p>\n<p>Since players opting out and transferring can wildly swing expectations for a game, it's advisable to join a pool in which you can change your selections up until the kickoff of each bowl game.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Current Record: 31-13<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>2025 Bowl Game Picks:<\/h2>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='118213' id='jtrt_table_settings_118213' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Bowl\",\"Matchup\",\"Pick\",\"Confidence Point Range\"],[\"Celebration Bowl\",\"South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M\",\"Prairie View\\u274c\",\"1-5\"],[\"LA Bowl\",\"Boise State vs. Washington\",\"Washington\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"41-47\"],[\"Salute to Veterans Bowl\",\"Troy vs. Jacksonville State\",\"Jacksonville State\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"21-25\"],[\"Cure Bowl\",\"Old Dominion vs. South Florida\",\"Old Dominion\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"6-10\"],[\"68 Ventures Bowl\",\"Louisiana vs. Delaware\",\"Delaware\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"1-5\"],[\"Xbox Bowl\",\"Arkansas State vs. Missouri State\",\"Missouri State\\u274c\",\"11-15\"],[\"Myrtle Beach Bowl\",\"Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan\",\"Kennesaw State\\u274c\",\"6-10\"],[\"Gasparilla Bowl\",\"Memphis vs. NC State\",\"NCST\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"21-25\"],[\"CFP First Round\",\"Oklahoma vs. Alabama\",\"Alabama\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"16-20\"],[\"CFP First Round\",\"Texas A&M vs. Miami\",\"Miami\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"16-20\"],[\"CFP First Round\",\"Ole Miss vs. Tulane\",\"Ole Miss\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"41-47\"],[\"CFP First Round\",\"Oregon vs. James Madison\",\"Oregon\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"41-47\"],[\"Famous Idaho Potato Bowl\",\"Washington State vs. Utah State\",\"Utah State\\u274c\",\"11-15\"],[\"Boca Raton Bowl\",\"Louisville vs. Toledo\",\"Louisville\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"41-47\"],[\"New Orleans Bowl\",\"Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss\",\"Western Kentucky\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"11-15\"],[\"Frisco Bowl\",\"UNLV vs. Ohio\",\"UNLV\\u274c\",\"36-40\"],[\"Hawaii Bowl\",\"Cal vs. Hawaii\",\"California\\u274c\",\"16-20\"],[\"GameAbove Sports Bowl\",\"Central Michigan vs. Northwestern\",\"Northwestern\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"21-25\"],[\"Rate Bowl\",\"New Mexico vs. Minnesota\",\"New Mexico\\u274c\",\"21-25\"],[\"First Responder Bowl\",\"Florida International vs. UTSA\",\"UTSA\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"1-5\"],[\"Military Bowl\",\"Pitt vs. East Carolina\",\"PItt\\u274c\",\"36-40\"],[\"Pinstripe Bowl\",\"Clemson vs. Penn State\",\"Clemson\\u274c\",\"1-5\"],[\"Fenway Bowl\",\"Connecticut vs. Army\",\"Army\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"6-10\"],[\"Pop-Tarts Bowl\",\"Georgia Tech vs. BYU\",\"BYU\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"36-40\"],[\"Arizona Bowl\",\"Miami of Ohio vs. Fresno State\",\"Fresno State\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"31-35\"],[\"New Mexico Bowl\",\"San Diego State vs. North Texas\",\"North Texas\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"11-15\"],[\"Gator Bowl\",\"Missouri vs. Virginia\",\"Missouri\\u274c\",\"11-15\"],[\"Texas Bowl\",\"LSU vs. Houston\",\"Houston\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"26-30\"],[\"Birmingham Bowl\",\"Appalachian State  vs. Georgia Southern\",\"Georgia Southern\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"31-35\"],[\"Independence Bowl\",\"Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech\",\"Louisiana Tech\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"41-47\"],[\"Music City Bowl\",\"Tennessee vs. Illinois\",\"Illinois\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"16-20\"],[\"Alamo Bowl\",\"USC vs. TCU\",\"TCU\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"21-25\"],[\"ReliaQuest Bowl\",\"Vanderbilt vs. Iowa\",\"Vanderbilt\\u274c\",\"26-30\"],[\"Sun Bowl\",\"Arizona State vs. Duke\",\"Duke\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"36-40\"],[\"Citrus Bowl\",\"Texas vs. Michigan\",\"Texas\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"26-30\"],[\"Las Vegas Bowl\",\"Utah vs. Nebraska\",\"Utah\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"41-47\"],[\"CFP Quarterfinal\",\"Ohio State vs. Miami\",\"Ohio State\\u274c\",\"31-35\"],[\"CFP Quarterfinal\",\"Texas Tech vs. Oregon\",\"Oregon\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"26-30\"],[\"CFP Quarterfinal\",\"Indiana vs. Alabama\",\"Indiana\\u2714\\ufe0f\",\"36-40\"],[\"CFP Quarterfinal\",\"Georgia 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data-jtrt-table-id='118213' id='jtrt_table_bps_118213' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_118213' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='118213' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Bowl<\/th><th>Matchup<\/th><th>Pick<\/th><th>Confidence Point Range<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Celebration Bowl<\/td><td>South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M<\/td><td>Prairie View\u274c<\/td><td>1-5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LA Bowl<\/td><td>Boise State vs. Washington<\/td><td>Washington\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>41-47<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Salute to Veterans Bowl<\/td><td>Troy vs. Jacksonville State<\/td><td>Jacksonville State\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>21-25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cure Bowl<\/td><td>Old Dominion vs. South Florida<\/td><td>Old Dominion\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>6-10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>68 Ventures Bowl<\/td><td>Louisiana vs. Delaware<\/td><td>Delaware\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>1-5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Xbox Bowl<\/td><td>Arkansas State vs. Missouri State<\/td><td>Missouri State\u274c<\/td><td>11-15<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Myrtle Beach Bowl<\/td><td>Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan<\/td><td>Kennesaw State\u274c<\/td><td>6-10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gasparilla Bowl<\/td><td>Memphis vs. NC State<\/td><td>NCST\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>21-25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP First Round<\/td><td>Oklahoma vs. Alabama<\/td><td>Alabama\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>16-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP First Round<\/td><td>Texas A&M vs. Miami<\/td><td>Miami\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>16-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP First Round<\/td><td>Ole Miss vs. Tulane<\/td><td>Ole Miss\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>41-47<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP First Round<\/td><td>Oregon vs. James Madison<\/td><td>Oregon\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>41-47<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Famous Idaho Potato Bowl<\/td><td>Washington State vs. Utah State<\/td><td>Utah State\u274c<\/td><td>11-15<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Boca Raton Bowl<\/td><td>Louisville vs. Toledo<\/td><td>Louisville\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>41-47<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>New Orleans Bowl<\/td><td>Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss<\/td><td>Western Kentucky\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>11-15<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Frisco Bowl<\/td><td>UNLV vs. Ohio<\/td><td>UNLV\u274c<\/td><td>36-40<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hawaii Bowl<\/td><td>Cal vs. Hawaii<\/td><td>California\u274c<\/td><td>16-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GameAbove Sports Bowl<\/td><td>Central Michigan vs. Northwestern<\/td><td>Northwestern\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>21-25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rate Bowl<\/td><td>New Mexico vs. Minnesota<\/td><td>New Mexico\u274c<\/td><td>21-25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>First Responder Bowl<\/td><td>Florida International vs. UTSA<\/td><td>UTSA\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>1-5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Military Bowl<\/td><td>Pitt vs. East Carolina<\/td><td>PItt\u274c<\/td><td>36-40<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pinstripe Bowl<\/td><td>Clemson vs. Penn State<\/td><td>Clemson\u274c<\/td><td>1-5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fenway Bowl<\/td><td>Connecticut vs. Army<\/td><td>Army\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>6-10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pop-Tarts Bowl<\/td><td>Georgia Tech vs. BYU<\/td><td>BYU\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>36-40<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Arizona Bowl<\/td><td>Miami of Ohio vs. Fresno State<\/td><td>Fresno State\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>31-35<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>New Mexico Bowl<\/td><td>San Diego State vs. North Texas<\/td><td>North Texas\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>11-15<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gator Bowl<\/td><td>Missouri vs. Virginia<\/td><td>Missouri\u274c<\/td><td>11-15<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Texas Bowl<\/td><td>LSU vs. Houston<\/td><td>Houston\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>26-30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Birmingham Bowl<\/td><td>Appalachian State  vs. Georgia Southern<\/td><td>Georgia Southern\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>31-35<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Independence Bowl<\/td><td>Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech<\/td><td>Louisiana Tech\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>41-47<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Music City Bowl<\/td><td>Tennessee vs. Illinois<\/td><td>Illinois\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>16-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Alamo Bowl<\/td><td>USC vs. TCU<\/td><td>TCU\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>21-25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ReliaQuest Bowl<\/td><td>Vanderbilt vs. Iowa<\/td><td>Vanderbilt\u274c<\/td><td>26-30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sun Bowl<\/td><td>Arizona State vs. Duke<\/td><td>Duke\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>36-40<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Citrus Bowl<\/td><td>Texas vs. Michigan<\/td><td>Texas\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>26-30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Las Vegas Bowl<\/td><td>Utah vs. Nebraska<\/td><td>Utah\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>41-47<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Quarterfinal<\/td><td>Ohio State vs. Miami<\/td><td>Ohio State\u274c<\/td><td>31-35<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Quarterfinal<\/td><td>Texas Tech vs. Oregon<\/td><td>Oregon\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>26-30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Quarterfinal<\/td><td>Indiana vs. Alabama<\/td><td>Indiana\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>36-40<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Quarterfinal<\/td><td>Georgia vs. Ole Miss<\/td><td>Georgia\u274c<\/td><td>31-35<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Armed Forces Bowl<\/td><td>Texas State vs. Rice<\/td><td>Texas State\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>41-47<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Liberty Bowl<\/td><td>Navy vs. Cincinnati<\/td><td>Navy\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>31-35<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Duke's Mayo Bowl<\/td><td>Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest<\/td><td>Wake Forest\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>16-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Holiday Bowl<\/td><td>Arizona vs. SMU<\/td><td>SMU\u2714\ufe0f<\/td><td>6-10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Semifinal<\/td><td>Oregon vs. Indiana<\/td><td>Oregon<\/td><td>6-10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Semifinal<\/td><td>Ole Miss vs. Miami<\/td><td>Ole Miss<\/td><td>1-5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National Championship Game<\/td><td>TBD vs. TBD<\/td><td>Coming Soon!<\/td><td>Coming Soon!<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"video-shortcode\"><iframe title=\"2025 College Football Bowl Pick\u2019em Strategy to Win Your Pool | Expert Breakdown\" width=\"1100\" height=\"619\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/xt5zMAfVebY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>2025 Bowl Game Analysis and Predictions, Every Bowl Game:<\/h2>\n<h3>CFP Semifinals: Oregon vs. Indiana<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Oregon<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 6-10 points<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>CFP Semifinals Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-oregon-indiana-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click here for a full breakdown of Oregon vs. Indiana in the College Football Playoff!<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>CFP Semifinals: Ole Miss vs. Miami<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Ole Miss<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 1-5 points<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>CFP Semifinals Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-ole-miss-miami-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/\">Click here for a full breakdown of Ole Miss vs. Miami in the College Football Playoff!<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>National Championship Game: TBD<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Coming soon!<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: Coming soon!<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>National Championship Game Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Coming soon!\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2>Completed Bowls:<\/h2>\n<h3>CFP Quarterfinals: Miami vs. Ohio State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Ohio State<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 31-35 points<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Texas A&M vs. Ohio State Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-miami-ohio-state-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/\">Click here for a full breakdown of Miami vs. Ohio State in the College Football Playoff!<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>CFP Quarterfinals: Oregon vs. Texas Tech<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Oregon<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 26-30 points<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Oregon vs. Texas Tech Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-oregon-texas-tech-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/\">Click here for a full breakdown of Oregon vs. Texas Tech in the College Football Playoff!<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>CFP Quarterfinals: Alabama vs. Indiana<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Indiana<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 36-40 points<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Alabama vs. Indiana Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-alabama-indiana-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/\">Click here for a full breakdown of Alabama vs. Indiana in the College Football Playoff!<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>CFP Quarterfinals: Ole Miss vs. Georgia<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Georgia<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 31-35 points<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Ole Miss vs. Georgia Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-ole-miss-georgia-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/\">Click here for a full breakdown of Ole Miss vs. Georgia in the College Football Playoff!<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>CFP First Round: Alabama at Oklahoma<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Alabama<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 16-20 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Alabama-Oklahoma Analysis:<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-alabama-oklahoma-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/\">Click here for a full breakdown of Alabama vs. Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff!<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>CFP First Round: Miami at Texas A&M<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Miami<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 16-20 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Miami-Texas A&M Analysis:<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-miami-texas-am-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/\">Click here for a full breakdown of Miami vs. Texas A&M in the College Football Playoff!<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>CFP First Round: Tulane at Ole Miss<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Ole Miss<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 41-47 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Tulane-Ole Miss Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-tulane-ole-miss-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/\">Click here for a full breakdown of Tulane vs. Ole Miss in the College Football Playoff!<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>CFP First Round: James Madison at Oregon<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Oregon<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 41-47 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>James Madison-Oregon Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-james-madison-oregon-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/\">Click here for a full breakdown of James Madison vs. Oregon in the College Football Playoff!<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>Celebration Bowl: Prairie View A&M vs. South Carolina State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Prairie View A&M<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 1-5 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Celebration Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prairie View A&M is participating in its first Celebration Bowl after pulling off an upset of Jacksonville State to win the SWAC for the first time since 2009.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Carolina State is in this game for the third time in the last five years, having lost last year and won in 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prairie View is the more balanced team, ranking third in scoring defense and 31st in scoring offense, whereas South Carolina State ranks 28th on offense and 63rd on defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Panther defense should be taken seriously, especially after holding a dangerous Jackson State offense to a season-low 244 yards.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>LA Bowl: Boise State vs. Washington<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Washington<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 41-47 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>LA Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Boise State wants to run the ball with <\/span><b>Dylan Riley<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>Sire Gaines<\/b>, <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">but that won\u2019t be easy against a strong Washington defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the Huskies' opponent-adjusted numbers against the run:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yards before contact allowed: ranked 15th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yards after contact allowed: ranked 14th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Boise\u2019s offensive line also might take a hit if left tackle <\/span><b>Kage Casey<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> opts out (he\u2019s already declared for the NFL Draft).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Washington is not expected to have any opt-outs, which should allow the Huskies to have their way with a shaky Broncos defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Washington ranks 11th in the country in explosive play rate, while Boise\u2019s defense ranks 121st.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy vs. Jacksonville State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Jacksonville State<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 21-25 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Salute to Veterans Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Troy might be without starting quarterback <\/span><b>Goose Crowder<\/b>,<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> who was injured in the Sun Belt Championship game, though backup <\/span><b>Tucker Kilcrease <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">started seven games when Crowder was injured earlier this year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The potential quarterback change probably doesn\u2019t make a significant impact, as neither handles pressure well, which could be a deciding factor in this contest.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out how these teams stack up in the pass protection battle based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Troy: ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jacksonville State: ranked 32nd in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is problematic because Kilcrease and Crowder rank 146th and 149th, respectively, out of 153 qualifiers in sack rate versus pressure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Troy might also be without starting running back <\/span><b>Tae Meadows<\/b>,<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> who is planning to enter the portal.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jacksonville State throws the ball at a rate 12% below expected based on situation data from Campus2Canton, and meets a friendly run defense in Troy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Gamecocks' spread offense creates light boxes for its running backs 62% of the time, which could exploit a weakness in the Trojan defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Troy is used to playing with light boxes due to its 3-3-5 scheme, but has been helpless against the run, allowing 6.0 yards per attempt to running backs when in a light box (ranked 108th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Cam Cook<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a former four-star recruit who transferred in from TCU, should run all over the Trojan defense. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Cure Bowl: Old Dominion vs. South Florida<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Old Dominion<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 6-10 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Cure Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Old Dominion has one of the nation\u2019s most explosive offenses, but will be without starting quarterback <\/span><b>Colton Joseph<\/b>,<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> who has entered the portal, likely in search of a power-conference program to suit up for in 2026.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Joseph is a capable passer but also led the Monarchs in rushing yards &#8212; his 1,107 yards on the ground (excluding sacks) rank third among FBS quarterbacks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redshirt-freshman <\/span><b>Quinn Henicle<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will start in place of Joseph.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Henicle may keep the offense on track, as we saw his running ability on display in a start against Arkansas State last year when he ran for 220 yards, excluding sacks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, that was a terrible Arkansas State defense (ranked 125th in rushing defense), and the Bulls likely pose more of a challenge.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Henicle should also have some success with ODU\u2019s quick-strike passing attack, which could exploit a weakness in USF\u2019s defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Old Dominion has relied on quick dropbacks (zero\/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) at the nation\u2019s highest rate (79%), and USF\u2019s defense only ranks 66th in yards per attempt allowed against those types of plays.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Joseph is a significant loss for ODU, offseason moves have hit USF considerably harder.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They will be without head coach <\/span><b>Alex Golesh<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and a few other offensive coaches (all headed to Auburn) as well as quarterback <\/span><b>Byrum Brown <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(who is serving as an assistant coach instead).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unlike ODU, the Bulls don\u2019t have a similar quarterback to plug in.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Brown is a run-first quarterback, leading USF with 1,121 yards (excluding sacks).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sixth-year senior <\/span><b>Gaston Moore<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a transfer from Tennessee, will make his first career start in Brown\u2019s place.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moore has played 220 offensive snaps in his career, carrying the ball just 11 times for 51 yards, so expect USF to lean more on its running backs and the quick passing game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">USF utilizes quick dropbacks at the nation\u2019s second-highest rate (62%), but ODU ranks 15th in the country in yards per attempt allowed against those plays.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s also worth noting ODU has just one bowl victory in program history (2016 Bahamas Bowl), so there could be stronger motivation on that side of the field.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>68 Ventures Bowl: Louisiana vs. Delaware<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Delaware<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 1-5 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>68 Ventures Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Louisiana leans heavily on the run, which could be problematic for a struggling Delaware defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Campus2Canton, Louisiana runs the ball at a rate 9.2% above expected based on situational data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ragin' Cajuns certainly don\u2019t have a dominant run game, but they should be able to handle Delaware based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Louisiana: ranked 76th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delaware: ranked 92nd in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Louisiana: ranked 88th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delaware: ranked 113th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Blue Hens might be able to keep pace with their passing attack, however, as Louisiana\u2019s lack of pass rush has made it vulnerable to pass-heavy offenses.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delaware throws the ball at a rate 10% above expected, and quarterback <\/span><b>Nick Minicucci<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> should have plenty of protection based on these opponent-adjusted stats:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delaware: ranked 64th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Louisiana: ranked 129th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delaware\u2019s ability to protect Minicucci is impressive given the rate at which he takes traditional dropbacks (three or more steps).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Minicucci\u2019s 65% traditional dropback rate is the 10th highest in the country, which tends to invite more pressure, but that won\u2019t be an issue against Louisiana.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ragin\u2019 Cajuns rank 133rd in pressure rate generated against traditional dropbacks and 89th in yards per attempt allowed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delaware went 4-2 this season when Minicucci was pressured on fewer than 30% of his dropbacks, and Louisiana only generated a pressure rate that high four times.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Missouri State<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 11-15 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Xbox Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri State runs a pass-heavy offense but struggles to protect quarterback <\/span><b>Jacob Clark<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which could be an issue in this matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the pass-protection battle based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri State: ranked 118th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arkansas State: ranked 84th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When the Bears are able to protect Clark, however, there will be plenty of big plays to be had against this Red Wolves defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri State\u2019s offense ranks 14th in explosive play rate, while Arkansas State\u2019s defense ranks 98th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expect most of those big plays to come in the downfield passing game, as Clark ranks 10th in completion rate at 15 or more yards downfield (53%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Red Wolves defense ranks 91st in completion rate allowed at that depth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Missouri State protects Clark enough to have some success in the downfield passing game, Arkansas State might struggle to keep pace.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Red Wolves rank 121st in opponent-adjusted scoring offense and 118th in explosive play rate, so this is not a team built for a shootout.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri\u2019s State\u2019s weakness on defense is its run defense, but Arkansas State does not appear built to exploit that flaw based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arkansas State: ranked 92nd in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri State: ranked 89th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arkansas State: ranked 121st in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri State: ranked 100th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Kennesaw State<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 6-10 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Myrtle Beach Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western Michigan runs a slow-paced, run-heavy offense, simply trying to bleed the clock and win low-scoring games with its defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, Western Michigan runs the ball at a rate 11% above expected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out a few more key stats to sum up the Broncos offense:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ranked 115th in pace of play<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ranked 107th in opponent-adjusted scoring offense<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ranked 127th in explosive play rate<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western Michigan\u2019s rushing attack worked against some of the weaker defenses in the MAC, but it is not a consistent unit and might struggle in this match based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western Michigan: ranked 126th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kennesaw State: ranked 109th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western Michigan: ranked 104th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kennesaw State: ranked 68th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kennesaw State runs a spread offense, leaning slightly more heavily on the run game, where it may have an edge against the Bronco defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The spread scheme creates a light box for Owl running backs 68% of the time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western Michigan is allowing 5.7 yards per attempt with a light box, ranked 101st.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expect Owls\u2019 quarterback <\/span><b>Amari Odom<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to take some shots downfield in the passing game and potentially swing momentum with some big plays.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Odom ranks second in the country with a 63% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>It's also worth mentioning that this is Kennesaw State's first bowl game, and it's just six hours from campus.<\/p>\n<p>Western Michigan is in a bowl game for the second straight year and the eighth time in the last 12 years, so the Owls may have more motivation in this game as well as a crowd advantage.<\/p>\n<h3>Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis vs. NC State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: NC State<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 21-25 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Gasparilla Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The biggest question entering this game is: Does Memphis want to be here?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After starting 6-0 and looking like a serious playoff contender, Memphis went 2-4 down the stretch before losing head coach <\/span><b>Ryan Silverfield <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">to Arkansas (he will not coach in this game).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Memphis runs a balanced offense but might lean more heavily on the run game due to these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Memphis: ranked 23rd in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NC State: ranked 49th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Memphis: ranked 62nd in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NC State: ranked 112 in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The key to NC State\u2019s offense is protecting quarterback <\/span><b>CJ Bailey<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who takes a traditional dropback at the nation\u2019s sixth-highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Traditional dropbacks invite extra pressure, but Memphis only ranks 76th in pressure rate against traditional dropbacks (41%) and 113th in yards per attempt allowed (9.0).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>NC State's star running back <strong>Hollywood Smothers<\/strong> has opted out and plans on entering the transfer portal, but he missed some action earlier this year and freshman <strong>Duke Scott<\/strong> easily filled in.<\/p>\n<p>Scott is expected to take over as the starter next season and there should be minimal dropoff in production, if any.<\/p>\n<h3>Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State vs. Utah State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Utah State<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 11-15 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Washington State head coach<\/span><b> Jimmy Rogers <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">has already left for Iowa State, and at least 13 players have stated their intention to enter the portal.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some of those players will remain with the team, but starting running back <\/span><b>Kirby Vorhees<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is among those who have left the program.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Cougars favor the passing game and should be able to protect quarterback<\/span><b> Zevi Eckhaus<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> against a Utah State pass rush ranked 111th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Eckhaus isn\u2019t much of a downfield passer, so Washington State typically attacks on underneath routes, which doesn\u2019t look like a great plan of attack based on these numbers on throws five or fewer yards downfield from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Washington State: 5.0 yards per attempt, ranked 96th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah State: 4.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 33rd<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah State runs a relatively balanced offense but should probably try to avoid the passing game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah State: ranked 134th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Washington State: ranked 58th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fortunately for the Aggies, they appear to hold a considerable advantage in the run game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Washington State\u2019s run defense has been routinely gashed this year, giving up three or more yards before contact to running backs on 31% of attempts (ranked 112th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Quarterback <\/span><b>Bryson Barnes <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">also plays a critical role in the run game, averaging 78.0 yards per game, excluding sacks.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Boca Raton Bowl: Louisville vs. Toledo<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Louisville<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 41-47 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Boca Raton Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Both teams have been hurt by out-outs, but Toledo will likely be without more key players in a matchup it was unlikely to win even at full strength.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Most notably, Rockets quarterback <\/span><b>Tucker Gleason<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is injured and will not play, setting redshirt-freshman <\/span><b>Kalieb Osborne <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">up for his first career start.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Louisville will be without two starting defensive linemen, but Toledo\u2019s left tackle also opted out, so the edge in pass protection likely remains with the Cardinals based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Toledo: ranked 68th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Louisville: ranked 38th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Louisville will be without leading receiver <\/span><b>Chris Bell<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (injury), but receiver <\/span><b>Caullin Lacy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and quarterback <\/span><b>Miller Moss<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> are expected to play.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Toledo had a strong pass-rush unit during the regular season, but probably lacks the depth to replace opt-out <\/span><b>Malachi Davis<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who led the team in pressures and sacks.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Western Kentucky<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 11-15 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>New Orleans Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western Kentucky throws the ball at a rate 10% above expected, according to Campus2Canton, and should have success in this matchup with its quick passing attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Hilltoppers use quick dropbacks 40% of the time and should lean heavily on those plays in this game as Southern Miss ranks 107th in yards per attempt allowed against quick dropbacks (7.4), per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western Kentucky is also likely to capitalize on its scoring opportunities based on these red zone touchdown conversion rate stats:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western Kentucky: 70% conversion rate, ranked 24th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Southern Miss: 70% conversion rate allowed, ranked 117th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Southern Miss runs a more balanced offense and has a knack for producing explosive plays.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Golden Eagles rank 30th in explosive play rate, while the Hilltoppers defense ranks 106th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Western Kentucky also excels at generating negative plays, which has allowed it to force opponents into third-and-long situations at the nation\u2019s 14th highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Southern Miss only ranks 65th in third-and-long avoidance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Be sure to check back on the opt-out status of Southern Miss players shortly before kickoff because head coach<\/span><b> Charles Huff<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is headed to Memphis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Offensive coordinator <\/span><b>Blake Anderson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> was promoted to head coach, however, which may increase the likelihood of players sticking around.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Frisco Bowl: UNLV vs. Ohio<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: UNLV<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 36-40 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Frisco Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio head coach <\/span><b>Brian Smith <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">was recently fired for <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6900477\/2025\/12\/18\/brian-smith-ohio-university-football-affair\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">some wild off-field misconduct allegations<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, so it\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess what level of motivation the Bobcats have entering this game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UNLV has one of the most dangerous offenses in the country and ranks ninth in explosive play rate, while Ohio\u2019s defense ranks 81st by the same metric.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expect the Rebels to attack downfield early and often in an effort to exploit the Bobcats\u2019 greatest weakness.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Outside the red zone, UNLV throws 15 or more yards downfield 29% of the time, the 11th highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Anthony Colandrea<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> ranks 29th in completion rate on those throws (48%), while Ohio\u2019s defense ranks 119th (49%), per Sports Info Solutions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio leans on a run-heavy approach and will likely try to slow this game down by controlling the ball with its ground game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UNLV\u2019s run defense has been inconsistent at best, but Ohio\u2019s spread offense plays into the Rebels\u2019 hands.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out UNLV\u2019s run defense by box type:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Light box: 5.3 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 72nd<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Stacked box: 6.2 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 134th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On average, teams allow 0.9 fewer yards with a stacked box, whereas UNLV\u2019s numbers swing the opposite direction.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is noteworthy because Ohio running backs have only faced a stacked box 37% of the time due to its spread formations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When Ohio quarterback <strong>Parker Navarro<\/strong> drops back to pass, he will likely be swarmed by the Rebels\u2019 pass rush based on these opponent-adjusted numbers:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio: ranked 118th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UNLV: ranked 35th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So if UNLV can build a lead and force Ohio into a more pass-heavy game plan, the Rebels should be able to pull away.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Hawaii Bowl: California vs. Hawaii<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: California<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 16-20 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Hawaii Bowl Analysis:<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hawaii runs one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the country but it's a unit that has struggled to produce the explosive plays head coach<\/span><b> Timmy Chang <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is hoping for with his run-and-shoot scheme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Rainbow Warriors rank 101st in explosive play rate \u4e00 one of the few matchups in which Cal has had an edge in this area, as its defense ranks 80th by the same metric.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the other side of the ball Cal has a massive edge in the explosive play department, ranking 36th compared to Hawaii\u2019s defense at 102nd.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hawaii will have a chance to slow Cal down with its pass rush, which should hold an edge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California: ranked 110th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hawaii: ranked 25th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When<\/span><b> Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has time, expect Cal to take some shots downfield as the Golden Bears throw 15 or more yards downfield at the 36th highest rate outside the red zone.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sagapolutele is completing 51% of his throws at that depth, ranked 21st, while Hawaii\u2019s defense ranks 66th in completion rate allowed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cal\u2019s offense has been wildly inconsistent due to the ups and downs of Sagapolutele, a true freshman.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expect Sagapolutele to look more sharp in this contest having had a few weeks to prepare for a mediocre defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hawaii is playing on its home field in this game, but that hasn\u2019t proven to be an advantage historically as the Warriors are just 5-4 in the Hawaii bowl.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Holiday Bowl: Arizona vs. SMU<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: SMU<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 6-10 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Holiday Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Both teams will be close to full strength in a surprisingly strong matchup for a post-New Year\u2019s Day bowl game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SMU leans on <\/span><b>Kevin Jennings<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and its passing attack and should have an edge in the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SMU: ranked 35th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arizona: ranked 80th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Wildcats secondary has played well this year, however, allowing the ninth-lowest explosive play rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arizona also has a pass-heavy offense and while its offensive line has struggled this year, it might have success against the SMU secondary.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Noah Fifita <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">takes a traditional dropback 62% of the time, the 18th highest rate in the nation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That style of offense has been a good strategy against SMU, which is allowing 8.7 yards per attempt against traditional dropbacks, ranked 105th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If this is a close game, the difference-maker could be Arizona\u2019s red zone struggles.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the matchup in the red zone:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arizona: ranked 108th in red zone touchdowns rate<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SMU: ranked 4th in red zone touchdown rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Duke\u2019s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Wake Forest<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 16-20 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Duke\u2019s Mayo Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wake Forest\u2019s strength has been its defense, which ranks 36th in opponent-adjusted scoring defense and second in explosive play rate allowed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mississippi State has leaned heavily on its run game but will likely be at a disadvantage against the Demon Deacons based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mississippi State: ranked 97th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wake Forest: ranked 12th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mississippi State: ranked 58th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wake Forest: ranked 41st in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mississippi State uses quick dropbacks 56% of the time, which helps mask its offensive line deficiencies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Wake leads the nation in quick dropback defense, allowing just 4.0 yards per attempt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Demon Deacons will be without defensive tackle <\/span><b>Mateen Ibirogba<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but the rest of the defense starters are expected to play.<\/span><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2>2025 Bowl Game Pick &#8216;Em Strategy:<\/h2>\n<p>In either straight-up bowl pick 'em or confidence pools, the goal is fairly simple.<\/p>\n<p>Pick more correct games or score more points than everyone else.<\/p>\n<p>Accomplishing that goal, however, is more involved than simply picking the games, especially in confidence pools.<\/p>\n<p>In regular pick 'em pools, there will be a lot of overlap between entries.<\/p>\n<p>In Splash Sports' $100K CFB Bowl Pick'em, for instance, there will be several teams with well over a 75% pick rate.<\/p>\n<p>While it is not a great idea to deviate from those heavy favorites just for the fun of it, those games can offer a great opportunity to gain leverage on the field if the public is too confident in a certain team.<\/p>\n<p>Often, this overconfidence is a result of the public missing important news, such as opt-outs or coaching changes.<\/p>\n<p>Betting markets adjust quickly to that kind of news and are a great way to determine if the public is too confident in a specific team, since every moneyline comes with an implied probability of victory.<\/p>\n<p>A -120 favorite (54.6% implied probability) selected by 80% of the field offers a great opportunity to go against the public.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, a -200 favorite (66.7% implied probability) selected by just 55% of the field is a great opportunity to go with the chalk and pick the favorite.<\/p>\n<p>Identifying those situations is important because it differentiates your entry and increases your chances of winning if you get those swing games correct.<\/p>\n<p>How often you need to make those swings depends on the size of your bowl pool.<\/p>\n<p>In a small pool, it does not make sense to pick a ton of upsets. A few underdog picks should be enough to differentiate from a small number of entries.<\/p>\n<p>A bigger pool, however, might require a bit more risk-taking to separate from the larger field.<\/p>\n<p>Confidence pools add another layer to pick 'em strategy because they require entries to rank their selections, with their most confident pick usually worth 47 points and the least confident worth only 1 point.<\/p>\n<p>The importance of those high-confidence games cannot be overstated. The 47-point pick is worth more than picks 1 through 9 combined.<\/p>\n<p>However, those high-confidence picks also offer a great opportunity.<\/p>\n<p>Assigning a higher point value to an undervalued team maximizes the advantage gained if that underdog can pull out the win.<\/p>\n<p>Like with regular pick 'em pools, the size of a confidence pool affects how aggressive you should be with upset selections and their point values.<\/p>\n<h3>GameAbove Sports Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Northwestern<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Northwestern<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 21-25 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>GameAbove Sports Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Northwestern slightly favors its rushing attack and should have success against a weak Central Michigan run defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Wildcats pro-style offense allows defenses to stack the box at a high rate, so let\u2019s take a look at CMU\u2019s numbers with a stacked box via Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.3 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 116th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4.8 yards per attempt, ranked 85th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Northwestern doesn\u2019t have a potent passing attack, but it should have some success in this matchup as it can likely protect quarterback Preston Stone based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Northwestern: ranked 9th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Michigan: ranked 67th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Michigan runs the ball at a rate 14% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since Northwestern is favored by 10.5 points, a significant amount of confidence points are likely to be wagered on the Wildcats.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I\u2019m not going to be as aggressive because Northwestern\u2019s style makes it vulnerable to upsets.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With both teams playing conservative run-heavy styles, it should be a low-scoring game which increases the odds of an upset.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additionally, Northwestern ranks 131st in red zone touchdown rate, while Central Michigan\u2019s defense ranks 31st.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So the potential exists for Northwestern to control this game, yet still struggle to put the Chippewas away.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you haven\u2019t been following along with our picks and are far behind in your pool, this might be a good spot to strategically pick an upset in hopes of a significant point swing in your favor.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs. Minnesota<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: New Mexico<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 21-25 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Rate Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Mexico runs a balanced offense and has the potential to create some problems for Minnesota with its scheme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the run game, the Lobos favor spread formations which create light boxes at a high rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And while New Mexico does not have a potent rushing attack, the Golden Gophers have struggled against those types of offenses, allowing 5.7 yards per attempt with a light box (ranked 101st), per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the passing game, New Mexico gets the ball out quickly, relying on quick dropbacks 42% of the time, the 34th highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Against quick dropbacks, the Gophers are allowing 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked 89th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When the Lobos aren\u2019t getting rid of the ball quickly, they\u2019re attacking downfield \u4e00 28% of throws outside the red zone have been at least 15 yards downfield.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jack Layne is completing 56% of those throws for New Mexico, while the Gophers are allowing a 51% completion rate, ranked 128th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Traditionally, Minnesota leans on its rushing attack but the pass game has become more prevalent this season due to some struggles on the ground.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It will be hard to find running lanes in this matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Minnesota: ranked 131st in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Mexico: ranked 19th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Minnesota\u2019s pro style passing attack has been moderately efficient due to a strong offensive line, but it\u2019s hardly a unit that scares anyone.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Gophers rank 110th in completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since there\u2019s no downfield attack, Minnesota tends to attack underneath \u4e00 53% of attempts travel five or fewer yards downfield, the 27th highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the Gophers only averaged 4.7 yards per attempt on those throws , ranked 109th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>P.J. Fleck<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is 6-0 in bowl games at Minnesota, so his team will likely be focused, but New Mexico will also have plenty of motivation as it is appearing in its first bowl since 2016.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>First Responder Bowl: FIU vs. UTSA<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: UTSA<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 1-5 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>First Responder Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If at full strength, UTSA would likely dominate this game but head coach<\/span><b> Jeff Traylor<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> said the Road Runners will be <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/theJJPerez\/status\/2001369364478751187\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201ca shell of themselves\u201d<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> due to injuries and opt-outs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I\u2019m sticking with UTSA as the pick, but dropping the confidence points down considerably.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although UTSA uses a slightly pass-heavy approach, expect the road runners to dominate on the ground based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UTSA: ranked 11th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">FIU: ranked 130th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">FIU is also expected to be without three starters in the secondary, weakening what had been one of the strengths of the team.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The lack of secondary depth is especially concerning given FIU\u2019s inability to get to the quarterback, as the Panthers rank 91st in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UTSA has been a boom-or-bust defense this year, excelling at creating negative plays but also ranking 124th in explosive play rate allowed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s a concerning trend against this FIU team which ranks 26th in explosive play rate, especially with multiple defensive starters expected to be missing for the Road Runners. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Military Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 36-40 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Military Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">East Carolina will be without quarterback <\/span><b>Katin Houser<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who has opted out with intentions of entering the transfer portal.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That leaves the Pirates with either freshman <\/span><b>Chaston Ditta<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who attempted just seven passes this season, or journeyman <\/span><b>Mike Wright<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who played more snaps at wide receiver and cornerback than quarterback this year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wright, however, does have prior starting experience at Northwestern, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Due to its quarterback mess, East Carolina probably tries to lean on its run game, but that\u2019s unlikely to work out based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">East Carolina: ranked 50th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pittsburgh: ranked 21st in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">East Carolina: ranked 120th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pittsburgh: ranked 8th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pitt leans on a pass-heavy offense which has gotten the Panthers in trouble at times due to the inconsistency of true freshman quarterback<\/span><b> Mason Heintschel<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, East Carolina only ranks 97th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated and likely lacks the ability to create much disruption.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Heintschel likes to attack downfield and should have success against a Pirates defense ranked 92nd in completion rate allowed on throws of 15 or more yards outside the red zone.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State vs. Clemson<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Clemson<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 1-5 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Pinstripe Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Congratulations to Penn State and Clemson on being selected to the Underachiever Bowl \u4e00 your reward is getting to play in freezing temperatures in Yankee Stadium.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The team that wins will be the one most invested in the game, but it\u2019s tough to guess who actually cares about this contest.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Clemson quarterback <\/span><b>Cade Klubnik<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> says he will play, likely giving a slight edge to Clemson as most other notable players on both sides are opting out.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check back close to kickoff as there could be more opt-out news yet to come. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. Army<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Army<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 6-10 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Fenway Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udea8<em>Last minute change\u00a0 &#8211; UConn appears to be without backup quarterback <strong>Nick Evers<\/strong>, leaving the Huskies with a fourth-string freshman quarterback. Take Army<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A significant portion of UConn\u2019s roster is planning to enter the transfer portal, some of whom may follow head coach <\/span><b>Jim Mora <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">to Colorado State.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, only quarterback <\/span><b>Joe Fagano<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has stated his intention to opt out of the bowl game so far.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Star receiver<\/span><b> Skyler Bell<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (entering NFL draft) and running back <\/span><b>Cam Edwards<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (entering portal), both team captains, have stated their intention to play which bodes well for others joining them.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When at full strength, UConn is easily the better team and even the loss of Fagano isn\u2019t a devastating blow as backup <\/span><b>Nick Evers <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">was the team\u2019s primary starter in 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s also worth noting that UConn played Rice and Air Force this season, two of the four option-heavy offenses in the college game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the best predictors of success against the option is recent experience against the scheme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UConn tends to lean on the quick passing game, using quick dropbacks 42% of the time, which is likely to create issues for Army\u2019s defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the matchup on quick dropbacks:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UConn: 8.5 yards per attempt, ranked 7th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Army: 6.8 yards per attempt, ranked 78th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Check back close to kickoff as more UConn opt out could sway me to pick Army, but as of now it looks like the Huskies have enough of their star players to win.<\/p>\n<h3>Pop-Tarts Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. BYU<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: BYU<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 36-40 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Pop-Tarts Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU wants to lean on its power rushing attack and Georgia Tech has one of the worst run defenses in the country.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the run-game matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU: ranked 84th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia Tech: ranked 125th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU: ranked 22nd in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia Tech: ranked 125th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Yellow Jackets also rank dead last in the FBS in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box (6.7), which is key against a fairly traditional BYU scheme which allows for stacked boxes at an elevated rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The playing field may be leveled slightly due to injuries to BYU star running back <\/span><b>LJ Martin<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and his backup <\/span><b>Sione Moa<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but it's unlikely Georgia Tech can stop anyone BYU sends out there.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On offense, Georgia Tech will be without coordinator <\/span><b>Buster Faulkner<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who took the same job at Florida, leaving<\/span><b> Chris Weinke<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to call plays for the first time in his career.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia Tech should also have success on the ground against a BYU defense which ranks 116th in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To BYU\u2019s credit, however, its defense has been a bend-but-don\u2019t-break unit this year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite some issues in defending the run, BYU ranks 29th in explosive rush rate allowed, which has forced teams to attempt to piece together long scoring drives.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU's defense then locks down the red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 40% of red zone triple, ranked fifth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s a concerning trend for Georgia Tech\u2019s offense which only ranks 86th in red zone touchdown rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Arizona Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Fresno State<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 31-35 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Arizona Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami is without starting quarterback <\/span><b>Dequan Finn<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> who quit the team in November to focus on the NFL draft.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In four games since Finn\u2019s departure, Miami\u2019s passing attack has been a mess.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Henry Hesson <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and<\/span><b> Thomas Gotkowski <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">combined to complete 40% of their passes down the stretch, and just 23% when facing pressure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s a concerning trend based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami: ranked 100th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fresno State: ranked 45th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami will likely try to lean on the run game, but it is also playing without starting running back <\/span><b>Kenny Tracy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> who was lost for the year due to an injury.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami\u2019s defense is also expected to be without star pass-rusher <\/span><b>Adam Trick<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who plans to enter the portal.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trick generated 80 pressures and an impressive 21% pressure rate this season \u4e00 no other Red Hawk defender generated more than 19 pressures, per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MAC programs typically don\u2019t have the depth to overcome so many critical losses.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>New Mexico Bowl: North Texas vs. San Diego State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: North Texas<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 11-15 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>New Mexico Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The outcome of this game could be decided by North Texas\u2019 opt-out situation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Head coach <\/span><b>Eric Morris<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is already gone, having taken the job at Oklahoma State.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A number of players are expected to enter the portal, though Quarterback <\/span><b>Drew Mestemaker<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is among those and is expected to play \u4e00 his decision could set the tone for the team choosing to close the best season in school history out at full strength.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Star running back <\/span><b>Caleb Hawkins<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who was injured in the conference title game, is also <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/brettvito\/status\/2004611190794989902\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">expected to suit up<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even at full strength this won\u2019t be an easy matchup for the North Texas offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the Mean Green rank fifth in explosive play rate on offense, San Diego State leads the nation in explosive play rate on defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This might not be the same Aztecs defense however, as coordinator <\/span><b>Rob Aurich<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> left for Nebraska, leaving cornerbacks coach <\/span><b>Demetrius Sumler <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">to call plays for the first time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The strength of San Diego State\u2019s defense has been its pass rush, but North Texas can neutralize anyone\u2019s pass rush with its quick passing attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Mean Green use quick dropbacks 53% of the time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, San Diego State has defended quick dropbacks well, only allowing 5.0 yards per attempt, the nation\u2019s ninth lowest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although this should be a tight game, as long as Mestemaker plays it's easier to trust North Texas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">San Diego State will be without quarterback <\/span><b>Jayden Denegal<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, leaving <\/span><b>Bert Emanuel Jr.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to make his first start since 2023 at Central Michigan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Gator Bowl: Virginia vs. Missouri<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Missouri<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 11-15 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Gator Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri will be without quarterback <\/span><b>Beau Pribula<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (transfer portal), leaving <\/span><b>Matt Zollers<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to take over.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Zollers made two starts this season and was helpless against pressure, completing just 3 of 14 passes and taking five sacks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s a problematic trend against UVA based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri: ranked 51st in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Virginia: ranked 20th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tigers\u2019 star running back <\/span><b>Ahmad Hardy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will play (he\u2019s a true sophomore), but runs into a tough test against the Cavaliers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hardy has carried the ball into a stacked box 68% of the time, while UVA only allowed 3.3 yards per carry with a stacked box (ranked 14th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UVA quarterback <\/span><b>Chandler Morris<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is expected to play as he is still hoping to remain eligible for a seventh season in 2026.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Morris will face the best pass-rush unit he\u2019s played against all year, as Missouri ranks eighth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Morris excels at avoiding sacks, pressure has significantly disrupted the UVA passing attack as Morris only averages 5.8 yards per attempt under duress.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri\u2019s defense is the best unit in this game and reason enough to take the Tigers in a close game, but check back close to kickoff to see if opt-outs change this pick\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Houston<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Houston<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 26-30 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Texas Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU will be sending its B-squad to this game against a Houston team which will be close to full strength and looking to secure a 10-win season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Tigers defense carried them all year but are expected to be without at least five starters, including four of their top six pass-rushers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At full strength LSU would have a considerable edge in the pass protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted stats:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Houston: ranked 96th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU: ranked 6th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If LSU\u2019s primary area of strength is erased by opt-outs, it\u2019s hard to envision the Tigers holding Houston\u2019s offense down enough to win a low-scoring game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU will also be without all three linebackers, Whit Weeks, West Weeks and Harold Perkins.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s problematic against Houston\u2019s run-heavy spread offense, which creates light boxes at a high rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU ranks 14th in yards per attempt allowed with a light box, but that success requires experienced, disciplined play from linebackers which the Tigers may be lacking.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although LSU likely still has the more talented roster, Houston's massive edge in experience and motivation likely wins out.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Georgia Southern<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 31-35 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Birmingham Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is a rare instance of a conference game getting played in a bowl since Appalachian State was a late replacement after initially not being eligible at 5-7.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia Southern held off a late Appalachian State rally to win the first meeting 25-23.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">App State has a long list of players planning to enter the transfer portal, including both quarterbacks <\/span><b>AJ Swann<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>JJ Kohl<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, though it's possible one or both could still play.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia Southern quarterback<\/span><b> JC French<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> averaged 9.5 yards per attempt when these teams met in early November and should have success again.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions, App State lacks the pass rush to threaten French:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia Southern: ranked 16th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Appalachian State: ranked 116th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia Southern dominated the first matchup, but kicked four field goals inside App State\u2019s 10-yard line.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although head coach <\/span><b>Clay Helton<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> could certainly get in his own way again with such conservative decision making, that\u2019s unlikely against an App State defense that ranked 70th in red zone touchdown rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The only reason to not put more confidence points on this game is Georgia Southern\u2019s defense, which is one of the worst in the country against both the run and pass.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia Southern ranks 126th in opponent-adjusted scoring, so the Eagles could give this game away \u4e00 though App State\u2019s offense only ranks 98th by the same metric. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Independence Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Louisiana Tech<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 41-47 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Independence Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Louisiana Tech runs the ball at a rate 7.1% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton, and should move the ball easily against the Chanticleers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Coastal Carolina ranks 127th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, per Sports Info Solutions, and it allows at least three yards before contact on 30% of carries (ranked 99th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Third-string quarterback <\/span><b>Trey Kuluk<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will likely start for the Bulldogs due to injuries, but he made two starts at the end of the year and has prior starting experience at the JUCO level.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kuluk adds a new dimension to the offense due to his dynamic running ability, as he ran for 310 yards in his two starts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Coastal Carolina head coach <\/span><b>Tim Beck <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">was fired after the season and the team is stumbling into the bowl on a three-game losing streak, so there might not be a ton of motivation on the Chanticleers sideline.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs. Illinois<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Illinois<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 16-20 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Music City Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although this game is in Tennessee and less than three hours from Knoxville, don\u2019t expect a full homefield advantage for the Vols.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Illini aren\u2019t a perennial bowl team (it's just their fifth in the last 14 years), and a trip to Nashville is an easy sell to fans.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As for the matchup, expect a shootout as defense is a weakness for both teams.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee\u2019s secondary has been a mess all year, partially due to an injury to potential first-round pick <\/span><b>Jermod McCoy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> before the season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Colton Hood<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the Vols most reliable corner in McCoy\u2019s absence has opted out of this game leaving a bad secondary in serious trouble.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Due to those issues in the secondary, Tennessee has allowed 20 or more yards on 11% of pass plays, ranked 100th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expect<\/span><b> Luke Altmyer<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to attack the Vols downfield early and often.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Outside the red zone, the Illini throw 15 or more yards downfield 26% of the time, the 31st highest rate, while completing 62% of those passes, ranked second in the FBS per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Illinois has struggled against the best defenses it faced this year in part due to an inconsistent offensive line.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even the surprising loss to Wisconsin can be explained by the Badgers ranking 23rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and generating 52% pressure rate against the Illini.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee, however, ranks 59th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and the Illini went 4-1 while averaging 37 points per game against teams ranked outside the top 50.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When the Vols are on offense they should also have a significant edge in the pass-protection battle as Illinois ranked 130th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and its best pass-rusher<\/span><b> Gabe Jacas<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has opted out.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the lack of pass rush, Illinois\u2019 defense has held up reasonably well due to its playmakers in the secondary.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On throws 15 or more yards downfield outside the red zone, the Illini rank 18th in completion rate allowed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a result, Illinois ranks ninth in explosive play rate allowed and should be relatively successful at limiting Tennessee\u2019s explosive offensive attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee\u2019s leading receiver<\/span><b> Chris Brazzell II<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is also among the opt-outs, which further hurts the Vols chances of finding success downfield.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Brazzell commanded a 35% target share.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Alamo Bowl: USC vs. TCU<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: TCU<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 21-25 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Alamo Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Both teams in this matchup have been hit hard by opt-outs\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although USC is missing more players, TCU will sorely miss quarterback<\/span><b> Josh Hoover<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">TCU will start former Vanderbilt quarterback <\/span><b>Ken Seals<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who made 22 starts for the Commoders but has barely seen the field in two years with the Horned Frogs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is potentially problematic as TCU runs a pass-heavy offense, throwing the ball at a rate 7.6% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Further complicating things for TCU\u2019s offense is the departure of coordinator <\/span><b>Kendall Briles<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who has already left the team for the same job at South Carolina.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">TCU quarterbacks have taken a quick dropback 48% of the time this year, the 19th highest rate, so Seals\u2019 lack of experience in the offense could be problematic as timing is critical to this scheme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, USC has struggled to defend quick dropbacks, ranking 109th in yards per attempt on those plays (7.5), according to Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">USC has significantly more opt-outs than TCU, most notably star safety <\/span><b>Kamari Ramsey<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who wore the green dot for the Trojans defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In four games without Ramsey (including the Iowa game, in which he played just eight snaps), USC went 2-2 while allowing a full yard per play more than the games when Ramsey was on the field.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Safety<\/span><b> Bishop Fitzgerald<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, pass-rusher<\/span><b> Anthony Lucas a<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">nd linebacker <\/span><b>Eric Gentry <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">have also opted out.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So the Trojans will be without arguably the four best players from an already shaky defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">USC will also be without leading receivers<\/span><b> Ja\u2019Kobi Lane<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><b>Makai Lemon<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and tight end <\/span><b>Lake McRee<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That trio accounted for 66% of the Trojans receiving yards this season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although USC would certainly have an offensive edge at full strength, this may be closer to an even matchup since TCU is not expected to have any defensive opt-outs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If USC tries to lean more on the run game due to a lack of pass-game weapons, that might play into TCU\u2019s hand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Frogs 3-3-5 defense is built to defend spread offenses like <\/span><b>Lincoln Riley<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019s and TCU ranks 28th in yards per rush attempt allowed with a light box.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The downside to TCU\u2019s scheme is an inconsistent pass-rush unit, though that might not be an issue against USC which has struggled since left tackle <\/span><b>Elijah Page <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">was lost to injury.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Quarterback<\/span><b> Jayden Maiava<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> faced a pressure rate of 30% or higher in each of the three games USC has played without Page.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Vanderbilt<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 26-30 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>ReliaQuest Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As always, <\/span><b>Kirk Ferentz<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019s squad uses a run-heavy offense but has struggled to consistently move the ball due to a mediocre offensive line.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Based on opponent-adjusted numbers, the Hawkeyes rank 103rd in yards before contact (side note: how on earth did this unit win the Joe Moore Award as the nation\u2019s best offensive line?).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa\u2019s running backs have salvaged the run game by producing after contact, but that won\u2019t be easy against Vanderbuilt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Sports Info Solutions, Vandy ranks 29th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact allowed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On offense, Vanderbilt leans on <\/span><b>Diego Pavia<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> as both a runner and passer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It will likely be hard for Iowa to get Vandy off the field, as the Commodores rank third in the nation in third-and-long avoidance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa\u2019s defense only forces opponents into third-and-long situations 22% of the time, ranked 76th. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs. Duke<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Duke<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 36-40 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Sun Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arizona State will be without injured quarterback<\/span><b> Sam Leavitt<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, with journeyman<\/span><b> Jeff Sims<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> making his sixth start of the year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, <\/span><b>Kenny Dillingham<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> said freshman<\/span><b> Cam Dyer<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who has never taken the field, will also see some action.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Dillingham is willing to let a freshman make his debut in this game, that says a lot about how seriously Arizona State is taking this contest.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arizona State is also expected to be without its top three rushers <\/span><b>Raleek Brown<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><b>Kyson Brown<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>Kanye Udoh<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and leading receiver <\/span><b>Jordan Tyson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Three offensive line starters are also expected to be out for the Sun Devils due to opt-outs and injuries, which is concerning against this Duke defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Duke has had all sorts of issues on the defensive side of the ball this year, the pass rush has been its one strength.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers, Duke should dominate that area of the game, especially accounting for ASU\u2019s missing linemen:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arizona State: ranked 95th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Duke: ranked 18th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the other side of the ball Duke ranks 17th in opponent-adjusted scoring offense and the majority of the roster, most notably quarterback <\/span><b>Darian Mensah<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, is going to suit up.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The ACC champs are trying to get to nine wins in consecutive seasons for just the second time in school history, so the Blue Devils are likely significantly more motivated than Arizona State.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Texas<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 26-30 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Citrus Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Michigan has only announced three opt-outs, so the Wolverines might be more focused than initially expected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although the <\/span><b>Sherrone Moore<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> mess could be a distraction, it may also be serving as motivation for the players to win this game and put that sideshow behind them.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas, on the other hand, will be without nearly its entire defense which was shocked by the firing of coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unfortunately for Michigan, two of its opt-outs will weaken the strength of the team.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Leading pass-rushers <\/span><b>Derrick Moore<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and<\/span><b> Jaishawn Barham<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will not play, after accounting for 30% of the team\u2019s pressures during the regular season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Michigan\u2019s run-heavy offense likely would have had trouble with Texas during the regular season, but it\u2019s tough to guess how this version of the Longhorns defense will perform.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During the regular season, Texas ranked in the top 10 of both opponent-adjusted yards before and after contact.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s tough to trust either team but with time to prepare, Texas\u2019 offense should look improved and there\u2019s still enough talent on defense to contain Michigan\u2019s limited offense.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Texas State<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 41-47 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Armed Forces Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas State ranks 14th in opponent-adjusted scoring offense, while Rice ranks 132nd and will be without its starting quarterback.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It would be shocking if Rice had enough offense to keep pace in this game. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Liberty Bowl: Navy vs. Cincinnati<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Navy<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 31-35 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Liberty Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At full strength Cincinnati might be favored in this game, but the Bearcats are expected to be without at least six starters including quarterback <\/span><b>Brendan Sorsby<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who has entered the portal.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The service academies tend to do well in bowl games because their unique offense requires a lot of focus and preparation, and a team dealing with significant opt-outs is less likely to be locked in.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Without Sorsby, the Bearcats might lean more on their rushing attack but Navy\u2019s physical defensive front poses a challenge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cincinnati: ranked 39th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Navy: ranked 17th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. Utah<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicted Winner: Utah<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Confidence Points: 41-47 point range<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Las Vegas Bowl Analysis:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It was easier to pick Utah in this matchup when it was supposed to be a farewell show for <\/span><b>Kyle Whittingham<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but the Utes are still significantly more talented than the Huskers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Utes will be without both starting tackles who are likely first-round draft picks, but this Nebraska run defense was a mess this season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expect Utah to run all over the Huskers based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah: ranked 2nd in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nebraska: 121st in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nebraska\u2019s offense is also likely to struggle with Utah\u2019s pass rush, which ranks second in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>2025 Bowl Game Schedule:<\/h2>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='118214' id='jtrt_table_settings_118214' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Bowl\",\"Date\",\"Matchup\"],[\"Celebration Bowl\",\"December 13\",\"South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M\"],[\"LA Bowl\",\"December 13\",\"Boise State vs. Washington\"],[\"Salute to Veterans Bowl\",\"December 16\",\"Troy vs. Jacksonville State\"],[\"Cure Bowl\",\"December 17\",\"Old Dominion vs. South Florida\"],[\"68 Ventures Bowl\",\"December 17\",\"Louisiana vs. Delaware\"],[\"Xbox Bowl\",\"December 18\",\"Arkansas State vs. Missouri State\"],[\"Myrtle Beach Bowl\",\"December 19\",\"Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan\"],[\"Gasparilla Bowl\",\"December 19\",\"Memphis vs. NC State\"],[\"CFP First Round\",\"December 19\",\"Oklahoma vs. Alabama\"],[\"CFP First Round\",\"December 20\",\"Texas A&M vs. Miami\"],[\"CFP First Round\",\"December 20\",\"Ole Miss vs. Tulane\"],[\"CFP First Round\",\"December 20\",\"Oregon vs. James Madison\"],[\"Famous Idaho Potato Bowl\",\"December 22\",\"Washington State vs. Utah State\"],[\"Boca Raton Bowl\",\"December 23\",\"Louisville vs. Toledo\"],[\"New Orleans Bowl\",\"December 23\",\"Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss\"],[\"Frisco Bowl\",\"December 23\",\"UNLV vs. Ohio\"],[\"Hawaii Bowl\",\"December 24\",\"Cal vs. Hawaii\"],[\"GameAbove Sports Bowl\",\"December 26\",\"Central Michigan vs. Northwestern\"],[\"Rate Bowl\",\"December 26\",\"New Mexico vs. Minnesota\"],[\"First Responder Bowl\",\"December 26\",\"Florida International vs. UTSA\"],[\"Military Bowl\",\"December 27\",\"Pitt vs. East Carolina\"],[\"Pinstripe Bowl\",\"December 27\",\"Clemson vs. Penn State\"],[\"Fenway Bowl\",\"December 27\",\"Connecticut vs. Army\"],[\"Pop-Tarts Bowl\",\"December 27\",\"Georgia Tech vs. BYU\"],[\"Arizona Bowl\",\"December 27\",\"Miami of Ohio vs. Fresno State\"],[\"New Mexico Bowl\",\"December 27\",\"San Diego State vs. North Texas\"],[\"Gator Bowl\",\"December 27\",\"Missouri vs. Virginia\"],[\"Texas Bowl\",\"December 27\",\"LSU vs. Houston\"],[\"Birmingham Bowl\",\"December 29\",\"Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern\"],[\"Independence Bowl\",\"December 30\",\"Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech\"],[\"Music City Bowl\",\"December 30\",\"Tennessee vs. Illinois\"],[\"Alamo Bowl\",\"December 30\",\"USC vs. TCU\"],[\"ReliaQuest Bowl\",\"December 31\",\"Vanderbilt vs. Iowa\"],[\"Sun Bowl\",\"December 31\",\"Arizona State vs. Duke\"],[\"Citrus Bowl\",\"December 31\",\"Texas vs. Michigan\"],[\"Las Vegas Bowl\",\"December 31\",\"Utah vs. Nebraska\"],[\"CFP Quarterfinal\",\"December 31\",\"Ohio State vs. Miami\"],[\"CFP Quarterfinal\",\"January 1\",\"Texas Tech vs. Oregon\"],[\"CFP Quarterfinal\",\"January 1\",\"Indiana vs. Alabama\"],[\"CFP Quarterfinal\",\"January 1\",\"Georgia vs. Ole Miss\"],[\"Armed Forces Bowl\",\"January 2\",\"Texas State vs. Rice\"],[\"Liberty Bowl\",\"January 2\",\"Navy vs. Cincinnati\"],[\"Duke's Mayo Bowl\",\"January 2\",\"Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest\"],[\"Holiday Bowl\",\"January 2\",\"Arizona vs. SMU\"],[\"CFP Semifinal\",\"January 8\",\"Oregon vs. Indiana\"],[\"CFP Semifinal\",\"January 9\",\"Ole Miss vs. Miami\"],[\"National Championship Game\",\"January 19\",\"TBD vs. 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19<\/td><td>Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gasparilla Bowl<\/td><td>December 19<\/td><td>Memphis vs. NC State<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP First Round<\/td><td>December 19<\/td><td>Oklahoma vs. Alabama<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP First Round<\/td><td>December 20<\/td><td>Texas A&M vs. Miami<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP First Round<\/td><td>December 20<\/td><td>Ole Miss vs. Tulane<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP First Round<\/td><td>December 20<\/td><td>Oregon vs. James Madison<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Famous Idaho Potato Bowl<\/td><td>December 22<\/td><td>Washington State vs. Utah State<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Boca Raton Bowl<\/td><td>December 23<\/td><td>Louisville vs. Toledo<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>New Orleans Bowl<\/td><td>December 23<\/td><td>Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Frisco Bowl<\/td><td>December 23<\/td><td>UNLV vs. Ohio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hawaii Bowl<\/td><td>December 24<\/td><td>Cal vs. Hawaii<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GameAbove Sports Bowl<\/td><td>December 26<\/td><td>Central Michigan vs. Northwestern<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rate Bowl<\/td><td>December 26<\/td><td>New Mexico vs. Minnesota<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>First Responder Bowl<\/td><td>December 26<\/td><td>Florida International vs. UTSA<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Military Bowl<\/td><td>December 27<\/td><td>Pitt vs. East Carolina<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pinstripe Bowl<\/td><td>December 27<\/td><td>Clemson vs. Penn State<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fenway Bowl<\/td><td>December 27<\/td><td>Connecticut vs. Army<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pop-Tarts Bowl<\/td><td>December 27<\/td><td>Georgia Tech vs. BYU<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Arizona Bowl<\/td><td>December 27<\/td><td>Miami of Ohio vs. Fresno State<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>New Mexico Bowl<\/td><td>December 27<\/td><td>San Diego State vs. North Texas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gator Bowl<\/td><td>December 27<\/td><td>Missouri vs. Virginia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Texas Bowl<\/td><td>December 27<\/td><td>LSU vs. Houston<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Birmingham Bowl<\/td><td>December 29<\/td><td>Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Independence Bowl<\/td><td>December 30<\/td><td>Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Music City Bowl<\/td><td>December 30<\/td><td>Tennessee vs. Illinois<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Alamo Bowl<\/td><td>December 30<\/td><td>USC vs. TCU<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ReliaQuest Bowl<\/td><td>December 31<\/td><td>Vanderbilt vs. Iowa<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sun Bowl<\/td><td>December 31<\/td><td>Arizona State vs. Duke<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Citrus Bowl<\/td><td>December 31<\/td><td>Texas vs. Michigan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Las Vegas Bowl<\/td><td>December 31<\/td><td>Utah vs. Nebraska<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Quarterfinal<\/td><td>December 31<\/td><td>Ohio State vs. Miami<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Quarterfinal<\/td><td>January 1<\/td><td>Texas Tech vs. Oregon<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Quarterfinal<\/td><td>January 1<\/td><td>Indiana vs. Alabama<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Quarterfinal<\/td><td>January 1<\/td><td>Georgia vs. Ole Miss<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Armed Forces Bowl<\/td><td>January 2<\/td><td>Texas State vs. Rice<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Liberty Bowl<\/td><td>January 2<\/td><td>Navy vs. Cincinnati<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Duke's Mayo Bowl<\/td><td>January 2<\/td><td>Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Holiday Bowl<\/td><td>January 2<\/td><td>Arizona vs. SMU<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Semifinal<\/td><td>January 8<\/td><td>Oregon vs. Indiana<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CFP Semifinal<\/td><td>January 9<\/td><td>Ole Miss vs. Miami<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National Championship Game<\/td><td>January 19<\/td><td>TBD vs. TBD<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/WarrenSharpFBAnalysis'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-Youtube-Image-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"YouTube Ad\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The matchups for every 2025 Bowl Game as well as  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":117970,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"College Bowl Game Predictions, Picks & Analysis for Every Game","_seopress_titles_desc":"Predictions & analysis for every 2025 College Bowl Game. 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